Monday, October 8, 2012

Week 7: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.980 0.574 28 38.9 1 8.2 1 148.4 123
2 -- LSU 0.913 0.613 18 29.6 10 11.5 2 154.4 112
3 +5 South Carolina 0.863 0.525 51 29.8 9 14.3 10 153.3 117
4 +7 Notre Dame 0.862 0.584 26 25.1 26 12.1 4 158.6 98
5 -1 Oregon 0.859 0.524 53 31.1 5 15.1 12 181.0 7
6 +3 Florida 0.855 0.663 6 26.3 21 12.9 7 156.1 109
7 -2 Oklahoma 0.852 0.620 15 24.3 32 12.1 3 173.7 19
8 -5 Florida St. 0.847 0.553 38 29.1 13 14.7 11 156.8 105
9 -3 Texas A&M 0.833 0.616 16 24.4 30 12.8 6 183.6 4
10 -3 Stanford 0.827 0.557 33 31.2 4 16.7 21 161.9 74
11 +3 Boise St. 0.817 0.423 89 29.0 15 15.9 16 158.3 100
12 -- Texas 0.806 0.570 31 29.2 12 16.5 20 160.4 87
13 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.792 0.639 12 29.9 8 17.5 27 182.1 6
14 +6 Ohio St. 0.792 0.520 55 28.6 17 16.8 22 159.6 92
15 -2 Wisconsin 0.786 0.531 46 31.8 3 18.9 40 153.8 115
16 +5 Michigan 0.783 0.582 27 31.0 6 18.6 37 153.7 116
17 -7 TCU 0.778 0.396 101 27.0 19 16.3 17 158.6 97
18 -2 USC 0.773 0.554 36 28.7 16 17.6 28 161.9 76
19 -2 Michigan St. 0.746 0.553 39 21.3 54 13.8 9 161.7 78
20 +2 Kansas St. 0.744 0.546 41 31.9 2 20.8 58 154.2 113
21 +4 Cincinnati 0.743 0.492 64 25.8 24 16.9 24 167.3 45
22 -4 Nebraska 0.737 0.622 14 27.6 18 18.3 32 167.2 46
23 -- BYU 0.737 0.444 81 19.0 76 12.6 5 161.3 81
24 -5 Georgia 0.736 0.539 43 29.0 14 19.2 41 166.1 52
25 NA West Virginia 0.729 0.571 30 29.9 7 20.1 48 172.6 21
Rankings through games of 2012-10-07

LSU loses and doesn't fall. Texas loses and doesn't fall. West Virginia wins and just barely sneaks into the top 25. Oregon wins big and slips. WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?!??

The short of it is that TFG is very conservative in reacting to wins and losses. Yes, LSU lost to Florida. But the Gators are a top-10 team, were playing at home, and still only scored 14 points against LSU. Oregon, on the other hand, gave up 21 points to the 68th-ranked team in the country. Tip to Oregon fans: don't let a middle-of-the-pack team hang three touchdowns on you, and then you can complain about how my computer doesn't respect you.

The Mountaineers are another team on whom my computer is not yet sold. Yes, their offense puts up big numbers, and only some of it is their pace. TFG is slowly buying into the fact that the Mountaineers are both quick and efficient, but is worried that giving up ~35 points per game (or about 20 Points/100 plays) isn't exactly the best way to win a lot of games.

In the meantime, it seems my computer has secretly become an SEC and Notre Dame homer. That's a shame, because I started this analytical kick in order to uncover the truth about college football teams, not to support the conventional wisdom. The truth is, though, that the Fighting Irish haven't surrendered a touchdown in their last 3 games (Miami, Michigan, and Michigan State) and are now sporting the 4th-best defensive efficiency in FBS. Defense will get you far in the TFG rankings, and for good reason.

In the end, though, even at this early in the year it's still Alabama's title to lose, and everyone else is just playing for second place.

New entries: West Virginia.

Dropped out: Virginia Tech.

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