Saturday, October 13, 2012

Week 7: Saturday Matchups

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Game of the Week
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
4 Notre Dame 0.862 0.584 26 25.1 26 12.1 4 158.6 98
10 Stanford 0.827 0.557 33 31.2 4 16.7 21 161.9 74

This is the tale of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Fighting Irish have revamped their defense to legitimately become one of the top teams in FBS. Stanford, on the other hand, is still held in high esteem by the computers thanks to the residual statistics of Andrew Luck and his influence on the Cardinal's offensive efficiency. The numbers say Notre Dame are 2-to-1 favorites, but realistically I expect them to have better odds here. Notre Dame 34, Stanford 33 (65.5%); 160 plays.

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
9 Notre Dame 0.966 0.565 2 20.3 26 8.6 7 164.6 91
6 Stanford 0.966 0.542 30 22.0 15 12.1 26 167.3 54

I never thought I'd see the day when Notre Dame would be favored against a good team, but here we are.  The Irish have a slight offensive edge at 32.1 +/- 23.5 PPH but lack Stanford's 28.0 +/- 10.3 PPH consistency.  On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has the consistency at 10.4 +/- 3.6 PPH over the Cardinal's 7.0 +/- 10.3 PPH.  RBA picks Notre Dame, 27-20, but this game is essentially a toss-up at 50.0% confidence.



Coin Toss Game of the Week
TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears
GUGS Score: 66.4

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
31 Baylor 0.769 0.559 4 25.6 3 20.0 100 173.4 9
27 TCU 0.798 0.461 99 18.3 36 13.1 36 167.7 50

RBA doesn't know anything about Casey Paschall's DWI suspension, but I'm feeling pretty good about this pick.  Even without losing their starting quarterback, TCU was going to have a struggle on their hands.  The Bears are rolling on offense at 29.4 +/- 7.7 PPH, and TCU's once stout defense has struggled recently at 1.4 +/- 23.4 PPH.  Granted, Baylor has an even bigger sieve at 9.3 +/- 21.4 PPH, but TCU can't match their offensive firepower.  RBA picks Baylor, 38-34, with 63.9% confidence.


Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
30 Baylor 0.670 0.604 21 29.5 11 22.2 74 186.2 2
17 TCU 0.778 0.396 101 27.0 19 16.3 17 158.6 97

This is yet another game where TFG is still adjusting to roster changes. Not only were there all the changes from last year, but as Eddie pointed out there's a new QB for TCU this week. If only I had had the good sense to put my thumb on the scales and had the computer pick a different Coin Toss game this week. As it is I have to hope that Baylor's defense is still atrocious enough to let TCU pile up more points than the Bears. Good luck, Horned Frogs. TCU 41, Baylor 39 (54.4%); 172 plays.




SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 36.61 - 13.39 73.22%
TFG 36.12 - 13.88 72.24%
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