Monday, October 1, 2012

Week 6: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.979 0.564 36 38.4 1 8.3 1 147.9 122
2 -- LSU 0.928 0.587 25 31.7 4 11.4 2 154.4 112
3 +3 Florida St. 0.862 0.552 38 30.6 8 14.7 11 155.4 111
4 -- Oregon 0.859 0.531 46 30.9 6 15.0 12 180.7 6
5 +2 Oklahoma 0.855 0.621 12 23.9 33 11.7 3 175.4 11
6 +8 Texas A&M 0.851 0.615 16 24.1 30 12.0 4 184.2 3
7 -2 Stanford 0.851 0.556 37 31.1 5 15.5 16 158.7 96
8 -- South Carolina 0.837 0.496 60 29.3 12 15.2 14 153.3 116
9 +1 Florida 0.835 0.616 15 26.3 20 13.8 9 156.3 108
10 -1 TCU 0.833 0.382 103 26.5 18 14.0 10 158.7 97
11 -- Notre Dame 0.826 0.593 23 24.1 31 12.9 5 159.8 91
12 +1 Texas 0.823 0.533 45 28.8 14 15.6 18 160.4 87
13 -1 Wisconsin 0.805 0.552 39 33.1 2 18.8 36 154.0 115
14 -11 Boise St. 0.803 0.420 89 29.2 13 16.6 23 157.2 102
15 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.788 0.640 9 30.4 10 17.9 28 182.8 4
16 -1 USC 0.788 0.551 40 27.9 16 16.5 22 163.2 70
17 -1 Michigan St. 0.775 0.569 32 21.8 47 13.3 7 160.7 86
18 +2 Nebraska 0.772 0.601 21 26.4 19 16.2 21 167.4 43
19 -1 Georgia 0.768 0.498 59 30.6 7 19.0 39 166.8 47
20 -1 Ohio St. 0.765 0.489 65 25.8 22 16.1 20 159.3 93
21 +2 Michigan 0.754 0.600 22 30.5 9 19.5 46 154.2 114
22 -- Kansas St. 0.737 0.614 17 32.0 3 21.2 66 153.3 117
23 NA BYU 0.736 0.447 79 20.7 58 13.7 8 161.4 80
24 -3 Virginia Tech 0.727 0.519 52 22.3 44 15.0 13 159.1 95
25 NA Cincinnati 0.722 0.546 42 25.0 24 17.1 24 167.3 44
Rankings through games of 2012-09-30

New entries: BYU, Cincinnati.

Dropped out: West Virginia, Arizona St..



It wasn't quite the big scare or big change I'd asked for last week, but Mississippi was the first to somewhat threaten Alabama during a game. The downside is that Oregon had trouble putting away a mediocre Washington State team, while Florida State had similar problems with USF. The upshot, though, is that Oregon increased their odds against Alabama in a presumed national title game; they went from 10.6% likely to win, all the way up to 11.6% likely to win.

All the Boise haters big-conference fans out there will be relieved to see the Broncos out of the top 10 for the first time in years, as their woes on both sides of the ball are finally catching up to them. They've dropped 4.6 PPH on offense and gained 2.5 PPH on defense, both of those moving in the wrong direction.

Another notable feature of this top 25 is the lack of 8th-in-the-AP West Virginia, having dropped out of the top 25 this week after their track meet with Baylor. The Mountaineers are actually one spot out in 26th, a mere seven-thousandths of a point behind Cincinnati. Why no love for West Virginia? The simple fact is that as far as TFG can tell, West Virginia is basically still the exact same team as last year: +1.1 PPH on offense and -0.4 PPH on defense, for a grand total of +0.010 in expected winning percentage. They play a bit faster this year, but other than that we've yet to see any big statistical changes from last year.

In other words, it's still Alabama and then everyone else. Look for our conference projections starting this week, and our summary of the state of undefeated teams in FBS starting next week.


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.

No comments:

Post a Comment