Rankings through games of 2012-09-30
New entries: BYU, Cincinnati.
Dropped out: West Virginia, Arizona St..
It wasn't quite the big scare or big change I'd asked for last week, but Mississippi was the first to somewhat threaten Alabama during a game. The downside is that Oregon had trouble putting away a mediocre Washington State team, while Florida State had similar problems with USF. The upshot, though, is that Oregon increased their odds against Alabama in a presumed national title game; they went from 10.6% likely to win, all the way up to 11.6% likely to win.
Another notable feature of this top 25 is the lack of 8th-in-the-AP West Virginia, having dropped out of the top 25 this week after their track meet with Baylor. The Mountaineers are actually one spot out in 26th, a mere seven-thousandths of a point behind Cincinnati. Why no love for West Virginia? The simple fact is that as far as TFG can tell, West Virginia is basically still the exact same team as last year: +1.1 PPH on offense and -0.4 PPH on defense, for a grand total of +0.010 in expected winning percentage. They play a bit faster this year, but other than that we've yet to see any big statistical changes from last year.
In other words, it's still Alabama and then everyone else. Look for our conference projections starting this week, and our summary of the state of undefeated teams in FBS starting next week.
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