Saturday, October 6, 2012

Week 6: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Ohio State Buckeyes

Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
20 Ohio St. 0.765 0.489 65 25.8 22 16.1 20 159.3 93
18 Nebraska 0.772 0.601 21 26.4 19 16.2 21 167.4 43

In his first season with the Buckeyes, Urban Meyer has started to move the needle a bit on both sides of the ball; currently Ohio State is about 1.0 PPH better than they were at the end of last year. Nebraska, on the other hand, has kept their defense steady but improved about 4.0 PPH on offense. Unlike some top teams which are all defense and no offense (see: Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame) or all offense and no defense (see: Georgia, Michigan, and Kansas State), both of these teams are very balanced. This is one of those games where it's basically a toss-up, but home field advantage tips it to Ohio State. Look for a deliberate grind-it-out game with the Buckeyes pulling it out in the end. Ohio St. 35, Nebraska 33 (58.2%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
21 Ohio St. 0.847 0.531 47 18.8 34 11.1 21 159.3 118
15 Nebraska 0.913 0.533 42 20.9 17 12.4 27 167.0 60

RBA considers Ohio State the runaway favorite for the Leaders division if they were eligible, but that's likely a function of their competition rather than their skill.  The Buckeyes have an above average offense at 26.7 +/- 15.7 PPH, but they're not going to blow the doors off their opponents, especially at their 159 play pace. Their 4.6 +/- 13.0 PPH defense has similar pedigree. The key in this game is going to be the Nebraska defense. The Blackshirts surrender more points on average at 6.9 +/- 11.0 PPH, which should give the Buckeyes a slight edge. RBA says Ohio State wins a squeaker, 27-24, with 51.1% confidence.



Coin Toss Game of the Week
Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels
GUGS Score: 58.0

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
44 North Carolina 0.637 0.540 33 19.0 31 14.8 47 163.5 100
31 Virginia Tech 0.769 0.527 58 16.3 56 10.8 18 158.5 121

Imagine that: an ACC toss-up game. This one is ripe for comedy, featuring two wildly inconsistent defenses. Virginia Tech arrives with a 0.0 +/- 24.8 PPH defense that surrendered 35 to a Pittsburgh team projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East. With performances like that, RBA expects Virginia Tech to finish in a three-way tie for the Coastal championship at 6-5.  RBA believes that North Carolina surrenders a sickening 0.0 +/- 39.8 PPH, but that's due to a leverage point from shutting out an awful Idaho team after surrendering 28 and 39 points to Wake Forest and Louisville, respectively. RBA says that Virginia Tech wins a relatively high-scoring game, 31-24, with 64.1% confidence.


Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
30 North Carolina 0.672 0.437 83 24.1 29 18.1 29 161.1 83
24 Virginia Tech 0.727 0.519 52 22.3 44 15.0 13 159.1 95

Yay. The ACC. What's going to happen? Who knows! Not me! Not you! Not the players! As usual, Virginia Tech has a decent defense -- at home, at least -- and an offense which has struggled to put up points. UNC has a similar profile in that they've been amazing at home and anemic on the road. Fortunately for them (and my pick) this game is in Chapel Hill. If UNC's offense can overcome Tech's defense, the Tar Heels have a good shot at this one. As it it, it'll be close. North Carolina 32, Virginia Tech 31 (52.8%); 160 plays.

2012 Coin Toss Record: RBA 3, TFG 2.


SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 35.99 - 13.01 73.45%
TFG 36.23 - 12.77 73.94%

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