Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Week 10 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • Big East: Rutgers
  • Conference-USA: UCF
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 10 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,Conference-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC: Florida St.
  • Big East: Rutgers
  • Conference-USA: UCF
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA


Odds as of games through 2012-10-28


Week 10: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2012-10-28

With only a few weeks to go in the season, the question appears to be "who will play Alabama in the title game?" The two obvious contenders are Notre Dame and Oregon. Based on their remaining schedules, though, TFG things the Fighting Irish are more than twice as likely to finish the regular season undefeated. These numbers don't take into account a conference championship, though; Notre Dame, of course, doesn't have one, and Alabama would be a 9-to-1 favorite against Florida (and a 22-to-1 favorite against Georgia). Oregon would be a 2-to-1 favorite against likely Pac-12 South champ USC.

Currently there's a 1-in-19 chance that Alabama, Notre Dame, and Oregon will all win out going into the championship game, at which point it will come down to style and strength of schedule. Notre Dame has the better SOS, but the Ducks have been making their case for a return to the title game. They'll need strong showings against Stanford, USC (possibly twice), and Oregon State in order to make their case.

Kansas State is still in the hunt, but TFG is still skeptical about their defense and remaining schedule. They're firmly in the "Long Shots" category.


Monday, October 29, 2012

Week 10: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: SMU (0.103); Toledo (0.098); Arizona (0.092); Syracuse (0.080); Utah St. (0.076)

Biggest drops: Washington (-0.121); Southern Miss. (-0.112); Nevada (-0.108); Houston (-0.100); TCU (-0.096)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.548 16 26.5 3 5.4 1 156.2 124
2 -- Oregon 0.992 0.528 52 27.4 1 11.4 19 176.8 2
3 +2 LSU 0.983 0.549 15 22.8 6 7.9 3 160.2 116
4 -1 Florida 0.983 0.558 5 18.8 34 7.6 2 161.3 111
5 +1 Notre Dame 0.983 0.566 2 20.3 22 8.6 4 164.5 92
6 +3 Kansas St. 0.975 0.531 47 26.6 2 13.4 34 165.7 82
7 +9 Oklahoma St. 0.966 0.550 14 21.8 17 13.1 32 173.9 7
8 -4 Oklahoma 0.958 0.547 18 22.6 8 9.3 7 171.5 17
9 -1 Boise St. 0.958 0.465 92 19.6 28 9.2 6 168.2 45
10 -3 South Carolina 0.934 0.543 27 22.9 5 9.9 11 157.9 122
11 -1 Stanford 0.932 0.542 29 19.7 27 11.0 16 167.2 57
12 +5 Ohio St. 0.915 0.530 50 21.1 19 13.4 35 159.7 117
13 -1 Florida St. 0.915 0.546 20 22.2 14 8.7 5 165.9 78
14 -3 Texas A&M 0.908 0.556 8 25.0 4 11.7 22 173.5 10
15 -1 Georgia 0.906 0.543 28 22.4 13 13.2 33 160.2 115
16 +3 Rutgers 0.895 0.500 67 16.2 60 11.0 15 164.6 90
17 -2 USC 0.891 0.532 44 22.6 7 11.0 17 166.9 66
18 -5 Wisconsin 0.890 0.531 46 20.2 24 11.4 21 161.4 110
19 -1 Michigan 0.860 0.544 24 21.9 16 10.2 13 166.9 68
20 +3 Clemson 0.850 0.531 48 21.6 18 14.2 44 167.6 54
21 NA Nebraska 0.846 0.535 41 20.3 21 13.5 36 167.1 61
22 NA Oregon St. 0.832 0.547 17 14.4 81 11.3 18 170.8 22
23 -2 Arizona St. 0.831 0.534 43 20.9 20 12.9 29 174.4 5
24 +1 Michigan St. 0.829 0.545 23 15.4 72 9.7 9 166.9 67
25 NA BYU 0.828 0.486 75 17.3 46 9.7 8 168.8 37
Rankings through games of 2012-10-28


New entries: Nebraska, Oregon St., BYU.

Dropped out: TCU, Mississippi St., Penn State.

I'd like to start by taking a few steps backwards before presenting the RBA top 25.  The RBA top 25 is not a strict linear ordering of teams such that the (N-1)-th ranked team is expected to beat the N-th ranked team.  It means that in aggregate, the (N-1)-th ranked team will win more games in a 124 team neutral field round robin than the N-th ranked team.

Alabama and Oregon remain the top two teams in the country, sporting the top defense and offense, respectively.  RBA maintains a fairly consistent bias towards defensively-minded teams, so you'll find six of the top 10 defenses in the top 10.  The only real WTF team in the top 15 is Oklahoma State at #7.  They're sitting pretty thanks to an extremely consistent 22.2 +/- 0.8 PPH offense and an acceptably good-compared-to-most-of-the-Big-XII 8.3 +/- 9.5 PPH defense.


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Week 10: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Kent St. (0.068); Navy (0.065); Air Force (0.058); Pittsburgh (0.056); Utah (0.053)

Biggest drops: California (-0.073); Temple (-0.071); Purdue (-0.060); Rutgers (-0.057); Troy (-0.048)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Top 25 -- TFG


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.981 0.599 24 41.4 1 8.6 1 147.8 124
2 -- LSU 0.900 0.634 16 27.0 14 11.2 2 158.9 97
3 +3 Notre Dame 0.885 0.652 11 26.6 18 11.8 3 158.5 98
4 +3 Florida St. 0.880 0.505 59 30.6 5 13.8 8 157.4 104
5 -2 Oklahoma 0.874 0.647 13 26.0 23 12.0 4 174.1 17
6 -2 Florida 0.867 0.664 9 26.3 22 12.4 5 157.5 102
7 -2 Oregon 0.863 0.495 65 31.6 3 15.1 13 179.2 8
8 +1 Boise St. 0.837 0.398 91 27.7 11 14.4 12 157.3 105
9 +1 Texas A&M 0.833 0.642 15 25.9 25 13.6 7 186.5 4
10 -2 Stanford 0.819 0.562 38 28.3 7 15.5 15 161.7 79
11 +4 Kansas St. 0.808 0.582 31 34.4 2 19.4 46 153.7 118
12 +2 Oklahoma St. 0.808 0.610 22 26.9 17 15.1 14 182.1 6
13 -2 South Carolina 0.799 0.585 28 27.8 10 16.0 18 157.9 100
14 -1 Wisconsin 0.797 0.530 48 31.2 4 18.1 30 153.7 119
15 -3 Michigan 0.788 0.585 29 28.1 9 16.6 19 153.4 120
16 -- USC 0.768 0.494 66 27.5 12 17.1 25 162.2 77
17 +2 Ohio St. 0.758 0.499 61 29.6 6 18.7 38 160.9 84
18 -1 TCU 0.751 0.504 60 26.5 19 17.0 22 161.2 83
19 +1 Michigan St. 0.751 0.614 21 20.0 69 12.8 6 162.6 72
20 +5 Nebraska 0.734 0.627 18 25.9 26 17.2 27 167.8 44
21 -3 Texas 0.722 0.571 34 28.3 8 19.3 44 161.7 80
22 NA BYU 0.720 0.509 56 20.8 60 14.3 11 160.4 87
23 NA Georgia 0.715 0.542 42 27.4 13 19.0 41 165.3 57
24 NA Clemson 0.701 0.530 49 26.4 20 18.8 39 173.6 19
25 NA Cincinnati 0.694 0.508 57 23.6 36 17.0 23 168.7 39
Rankings through games of 2012-10-28

New entries: BYU, Georgia, Clemson, Cincinnati.

Dropped out: Mississippi St., Texas Tech, Penn State, Rutgers.


Alabama continues to steamroll their opposition, putting up 25.7 PPH against what was at the time the 14th-ranked defense in FBS. This follows performances of 29.5 PPH against the 71st-ranked defense (UT), and 27.8 PPH against the 17th-ranked defense (Missouri). The Crimson Tide are brutally efficient; at 41.1 PPH, they are a full 6.7 PPH better than Kansas State, the second-best offense in FBS.

Oregon is a bit of an anomaly, though. They rack up an amazing number of points, but often take their foot off the gas in the second or third quarter. We don't have a play-by-play breakdown, otherwise we'd have much better data for Oregon. Needless to say, the Ducks are definitely better than their TFG ranking indicates, but their actual ceiling is hard to find.

LSU continues to drift downwards (falling from a ranking of 0.932 takes time, especially when their defense continues to do a halfway decent job), while Notre Dame continues its climb up the rankings. The Fighting Irish are legitimately good this year, and it's all thanks to defense. Their offense continues to struggle; if they want to be a serious threat to Alabama in a title game, they absolutely positively have to jump at least 4.0 PPH to crack the top five.

Generally speaking, everything is pretty muddled. Alabama is dominating a difficult schedule, but everyone else is either dominating a middling schedule (e.g., Oregon), squeaking by a difficult schedule (e.g., Notre Dame), or some combination of the two (e.g., Kansas State, Ohio State, and Louisville).


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Saturday, October 27, 2012

Week 9: Saturday In-Game Win Probabilities

Last updated: Sun Oct 28 04:58:04 2012

Hawaii30Colorado St.285:30 3rd
Mississippi St.7Alabama38Final
UCLA45Arizona St.43Final
USC36Arizona39Final
Mississippi30Arkansas27Final
Texas A&M63Auburn21Final
Maryland17Boston College20Final
Eastern Michigan3Bowling Green24Final
Toledo25Buffalo20Final
Akron14Central Michigan35Final
Navy56East Carolina28Final
Troy27FL-Atlantic34Final
Western Kentucky14FIU6Final
Duke7Florida St.48Final
Georgia17Florida9Final
BYU41Georgia Tech17Final
UTEP35Houston45Final
Indiana31Illinois17Final
Baylor21Iowa St.35Final
Texas Tech24Kansas St.55Final
Texas21Kansas17Final
UCF54Marshall17Final
Ohio20Miami-OH23Final
North Texas21Middle Tenn.38Final
Purdue28Minnesota44Final
Kentucky10Missouri33Final
North Carolina St.35North Carolina43Final
Michigan9Nebraska23Final
LA Tech28New Mexico St.14Final
Fresno St.49New Mexico32Final
South Alabama24LA-Monroe38Final
Iowa17Northwestern28Final
TCU14Oklahoma St.36Final
Notre Dame30Oklahoma13Final
Colorado14Oregon70Final
Ohio St.35Penn State23Final
Temple17Pittsburgh47Final
Southern Miss.17Rice44Final
Kent St.35Rutgers23Final
UNLV13SDSU24Final
Texas State20SJSU31Final
Tennessee35South Carolina38Final
Syracuse37South Florida36Final
Memphis13SMU44Final
Washington St.17Stanford24Final
Utah St.48UTSA17Final
UAB45Tulane55Final
Ball St.30Army22Final
California27Utah49Final
Massachusetts7Vanderbilt49Final
Oregon St.17Washington20Final
Northern Ill.48Western Michigan34Final
Michigan St.16Wisconsin13Final
Boise St.45Wyoming14Final

Week 9: Saturday Predictions


  1Alabama44
 21Mississippi St.22
  1Alabama35
 22Mississippi St.14

 39Arizona36
 16USC39
 51Arizona24
 15USC35

 33Arizona St.39
 61UCLA31
 21Arizona St.34
 52UCLA20

 26Arkansas40
 51Mississippi32
 38Arkansas34
 60Mississippi24

103Army39
 86Ball St.41
107Army32
 93Ball St.31

 64Auburn30
 10Texas A&M37
 84Auburn20
 11Texas A&M31

 99Boston College31
 75Maryland33
 89Boston College24
 79Maryland25

 91Bowling Green39
109Eastern Michigan28
 90Bowling Green34
118Eastern Michigan20

115Buffalo31
 57Toledo39
115Buffalo24
 54Toledo38

106Central Michigan44
123Akron35
113Central Michigan35
123Akron27

114Colorado St.40
113Hawaii35
106Colorado St.31
111Hawaii24

 88East Carolina35
 78Navy33
 80East Carolina31
 85Navy24

 94FIU34
 70Western Kentucky36
100FIU24
 68Western Kentucky31

119FL-Atlantic29
 81Troy37
119FL-Atlantic21
 92Troy31

  4Florida39
 28Georgia32
  3Florida28
 14Georgia20

  7Florida St.46
 76Duke27
 12Florida St.42
 64Duke14

 66Georgia Tech34
 30BYU35
 62Georgia Tech24
 28BYU25

 56Houston41
104UTEP29
 48Houston38
103UTEP21

 93Illinois35
 79Indiana34
 81Illinois28
 76Indiana27

 53Iowa St.37
 38Baylor35
 74Iowa St.31
 40Baylor32

105Kansas28
 18Texas40
 97Kansas17
 32Texas45

 15Kansas St.44
 22Texas Tech35
  9Kansas St.38
 30Texas Tech27

 63LA-Monroe43
117South Alabama26
 58LA-Monroe41
116South Alabama13

 85Marshall35
 46UCF37
 73Marshall27
 50UCF31

111Miami-OH36
 84Ohio40
105Miami-OH21
 46Ohio34

102Middle Tenn.33
 90North Texas35
 88Middle Tenn.31
 99North Texas24

 95Minnesota31
 65Purdue33
 95Minnesota24
 63Purdue31

 36Missouri36
 92Kentucky26
 33Missouri38
 82Kentucky10

 25Nebraska35
 12Michigan37
 26Nebraska28
 18Michigan29

110New Mexico30
 45Fresno St.39
104New Mexico21
 43Fresno St.38

122New Mexico St.32
 42LA Tech48
121New Mexico St.24
 31LA Tech45

 34North Carolina35
 54North Carolina St.28
 35North Carolina28
 45North Carolina St.21

 49Northwestern35
 44Iowa32
 47Northwestern27
 49Iowa24

  3Oklahoma33
  6Notre Dame29
  4Oklahoma27
  6Notre Dame20

 14Oklahoma St.39
 17TCU35
 16Oklahoma St.41
 20TCU31

  5Oregon56
116Colorado24
  2Oregon49
112Colorado14

 23Penn State33
 19Ohio St.31
 24Penn State28
 17Ohio St.27

 43Pittsburgh34
 58Temple30
 70Pittsburgh28
 65Temple21

101Rice34
 82Southern Miss.36
101Rice32
 94Southern Miss.31

 24Rutgers36
 83Kent St.25
 19Rutgers38
 98Kent St.7

 50SDSU46
108UNLV30
 61SDSU42
110UNLV20

 80SJSU38
 97Texas State32
 71SJSU38
109Texas State21

 74SMU41
120Memphis26
 78SMU35
122Memphis17

 11South Carolina42
 41Tennessee31
  7South Carolina38
 55Tennessee17

 59South Florida34
 60Syracuse31
 69South Florida27
 72Syracuse24

  8Stanford47
100Washington St.25
 10Stanford42
 96Washington St.14

121Tulane37
107UAB38
120Tulane31
108UAB34

 62Utah32
 48California30
 59Utah24
 37California25

112UTSA31
 55Utah St.42
117UTSA21
 34Utah St.48

 69Vanderbilt42
124Massachusetts20
 42Vanderbilt45
124Massachusetts7

 72Washington32
 32Oregon St.36
 53Washington24
 29Oregon St.28

 89Western Michigan33
 37Northern Ill.38
 91Western Michigan21
 57Northern Ill.31

 13Wisconsin37
 20Michigan St.28
 13Wisconsin28
 25Michigan St.20

 98Wyoming26
  9Boise St.39
 87Wyoming17
  8Boise St.35


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


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Week 9: Saturday Matchups

<!-- GOTW 20121027-1522-1513 76.9
Game of the Week
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Oklahoma Sooners

Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
3 Oklahoma 0.896 0.614 20 26.9 18 11.4 3 173.6 18
6 Notre Dame 0.866 0.629 18 25.8 26 12.2 4 158.1 101

Oklahoma 33, Notre Dame 29 (68.0%); 165 plays

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
4 Oklahoma 0.983 0.546 21 23.2 7 9.2 7 171.6 16
6 Notre Dame 0.975 0.564 2 20.3 26 8.6 4 164.5 93

Both our systems have a tendency to overrate Oklahoma.  In RBA's case, it's not because they're super-efficient on offense.  It's because they're consistently efficient at 27.1 +/- 7.7 PPH.  If you can put up a reasonable number of points against everyone, you're most likely going to win.  In contrast, the Irish struggle offensively against quality opposition, 32.4 +/- 24.2 PPH.  That rarely matters thanks to their surprisingly good 9.7 +/- 2.1 PPH defense.  Realistically, this game is going to come down to the matchup between Oklahoma's offense and Notre Dame's defense.  The Irish can't afford to get into a shootout.  If everything goes according to plan, Oklahoma silences the echoes, 27-20, with 52.7% confidence.



Coin Toss Game of the Week
Baylor Bears at Iowa State Cyclones
GUGS Score: 49.9

Eddie

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
74 Iowa St. 0.388 0.543 26 10.6 114 11.1 19 169.8 27
40 Baylor 0.681 0.563 3 25.2 3 20.6 104 173.4 10

Baylor's defense is a dreadful 7.6 +/- 25.9 PPH.  The thing is that they can score at will with a 31.5 +/- 12.6 PPH offense.  The Cyclones are going to have a hard time keeping up with the Bears.  Sure, they beat TCU, but they scored only 9 points against Iowa, 13 against Texas Tech, and 10 against Oklahoma State, resulting in a 6.3 +/- 8.5 PPH offense.  Their defense surrenders quite a few points, as well, suggesting that we're in for a shootout.  RBA says Baylor in a very close one, 32-31, with 62.1% confidence.


Justin

Team WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
53 Iowa St. 0.545 0.699 5 16.1 106 15.0 13 174.0 16
38 Baylor 0.606 0.641 16 27.3 16 23.0 78 184.9 4

Iowa St. 37, Baylor 35 (55.6%); 179 plays




SystemExpected
W - L
Expected
% Correct
RBA 39.40 - 14.60 72.96%
TFG 38.74 - 15.26 71.74%
-->

Friday, October 26, 2012

Week 9: Friday Predictions


 68Air Force38
 47Nevada37
 67Air Force32
 41Nevada31

 40Louisville36
 27Cincinnati35
 36Louisville31
 27Cincinnati28


Key
Close
game
                        Certain
victory
                       


Follow us on Twitter at @TFGridiron and @TFGLiveOdds.