Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Week 14 RBA Projections: ACC,Big East,C-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC Atlantic: Clemson
  • ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech
  • Big East: West Virginia
  • C-USA East: Southern Miss.
  • C-USA West: Houston
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Week 14 TFG Projections: ACC,Big East,C-USA,Independents

Projected conference champions
  • ACC Atlantic: Clemson
  • ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech
  • Big East: West Virginia
  • C-USA East: Southern Miss.
  • C-USA West: Houston
  • Independents: Notre Dame
Full projected conference standings after the jump.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Week 13: Saturday Recap

This week we're bringing something new to the recaps: in-game win probabilities. We're still working on bringing these graphs to you live on game day -- hence the "beta" tag -- but for now we're hoping they add an extra bit of insight into how each game unfolded.

Week 13
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
RBA  39.4 -  13.6 74.3  40 -  13 75.5
TFG  38.5 -  14.5 72.7  39 -  14 73.6

Game of the Week


Florida State Seminoles 21, Florida Gators 7; 152 plays

Justin
(11) Florida St. 31, (16) Florida 30 (54.7%); 158 plays

Even in defeat, TFG continues to overestimate the Gators. Even though Florida State is better than their record would indicate, Florida should have at least made a game of it. By halftime the game was pretty much a lock. The Seminoles had a 14-point lead and were just shy of 90% likely to win. An ugly game, but a win's a win.

Eddie
(17) Florida 28, (14) Florida St. 24 (63.0%); 163 plays

We said this would be unpredictable. Well, nobody saw the two teams combining for 279 total yards and five turnovers. Unlike LSU-Alabama, which was a hard-hitting game with a bunch of missed field goals, this game was completely forgettable thanks to sloppy play all around. RBA missed the pick, but I get the joy of watching my Florida and Florida State officemates go back and forth for the next few weeks.


Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game


Wisconsin Badgers 45, Penn State Nittany Lions 7; 155 plays

Eddie
(6) Wisconsin 34, (31) Penn State 17 (79.7%); 162 plays

Chalk up another one for the Unstoppable Force. I was a bit more pessimistic about the Penn State offense than Justin, and they delivered. The game was higher scoring than expected, largely due to Penn State's turnover problem. When you keep turning the ball over on your side of the field, you're going to surrender points, especially against an offense like Wisconsin's.

Justin
(6) Wisconsin 36, (22) Penn State 26 (70.7%); 162 plays

This game was going to be an uphill battle for the Nittany Lions, but they started strong with a 7-0 lead. It was downhill from there. This was another one that was over by halftime. Even with a slow pace, the Badgers proved they've got a dominating offense.


Unstoppable Force 9, Immovable Object 3


Shootout of the Week


Baylor Bears 66, Texas Tech Red Raiders 42; 210 plays

Justin
(50) Baylor 41, (71) Texas Tech 36 (63.1%); 178 plays

A game with 210 plays and 108 total points. I'll have to check, but that might set a record for highest combined offensive efficiency in a game (51.4 PPH). Despite being underdogs and down by 10 with about 12 minutes left, the Red Raiders still had a 1-in-4 shot of winning. And that, folks, is why playing "the first to 60 wins" is a bad strategy.

Eddie
(50) Baylor 38, (63) Texas Tech 31 (58.6%); 175 plays

Jackpot. This game was way higher scoring than expected, making it the perfect shootout. 210 plays in a non-overtime game is absolutely ridiculous. Interestingly, they hit 210 plays despite Baylor running for 360 yards without RG3. Good thing Texas Tech fired Mike Leach; they might become an embarrassment.


Coin Toss Game of the Week


Florida Atlantic Owls 38, UAB Blazers 35; 159 plays

Eddie
(117) FL-Atlantic 31, (118) UAB 27 (73.7%); 164 plays

A football game was played. RBA picked the winner, despite them being winless on the season. I'll consider that a positive.

Justin
(112) UAB 36, (117) FL-Atlantic 33 (70.3%); 163 plays

Dammit, another loss. Eddie: I promise I'll tweak it so it'll stop choosing these "who-the-f*ck-are-these-guys" games.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 6, RBA 5.



2011 - 2012 Season
System Expected Actual
W - LWin % W - LWin %
TFG 485.7 - 170.3 74.0 481 - 175 73.3
RBA 482.8 - 173.2 73.6 473 - 183 72.1

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Week 14: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG


Odds as of games through 2011-11-27


LSU Tigers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.941 2 0.649 5 33.3 3 11.0 2 154.9 118

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03   5 Oregon 27 vs   9 LSU 40 45.4% 184
2011/09/15   7 LSU 19 at  35 Mississippi St. 6 69.4% 150
2011/09/24   5 LSU 47 at  21 West Virginia 21 64.4% 188
2011/10/01  62 Kentucky 7 at   5 LSU 35 93.0% 162
2011/10/08   7 Florida 11 at   3 LSU 41 66.6% 141
2011/10/15   3 LSU 38 at  32 Tennessee 7 81.4% 143
2011/10/22  24 Auburn 10 at   2 LSU 45 88.6% 144
2011/11/05   2 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 27.4% 143
2011/11/12  97 Western Kentucky 9 at   2 LSU 42 98.0% 151
2011/11/19   2 LSU 52 at  87 Mississippi 3 96.6% 139
2011/11/25   9 Arkansas 17 at   2 LSU 41 78.2% 149
2011/12/03   2 LSU 39 vs  17 Georgia 29 82.8% 158


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.2
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Georgia Bulldogs, 82.8%
Notes: At this point LSU is a lock for the title game. Even a loss to Georgia wouldn't derail them, but that seems unlikely. A loss to the Bulldogs would potentially affect who the Tigers play in the title game -- there are limits to the number of teams from a single conference that can be in the BCS -- but we're shaping up for an LSU/Alabama rematch.


Houston Cougars
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.721 23 0.335 111 26.7 12 18.2 53 180.0 5

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03  78 UCLA 34 at  63 Houston 38 74.5% 170
2011/09/10  65 Houston 48 at 109 North Texas 23 73.3% 186
2011/09/17  63 Houston 35 at  77 LA Tech 34 51.2% 205
2011/09/29  63 Houston 49 at  96 UTEP 42 62.1% 178
2011/10/08  80 East Carolina 3 at  66 Houston 56 67.1% 182
2011/10/22  94 Marshall 28 at  52 Houston 63 84.8% 169
2011/10/27  98 Rice 34 at  46 Houston 73 87.2% 179
2011/11/05  40 Houston 56 at 112 UAB 13 89.2% 176
2011/11/10  35 Houston 73 at 114 Tulane 17 91.3% 187
2011/11/19  65 SMU 7 at  32 Houston 37 68.8% 167
2011/11/25  27 Houston 48 at  30 Tulsa 16 53.1% 190
2011/12/03  43 Southern Miss. 35 vs  23 Houston 39 63.2% 177


Odds of finishing undefeated: 1-in-1.6
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles, 63.2%
Notes: To be fair to the Cougars, they're not quite 2007 Hawaii but aren't exactly 2006 Boise State yet. They would get totally thrashed if they played LSU or Alabama -- who wouldn't? -- but are getting to the point where they'd have a small shot against someone like Virginia Tech or Stanford.


One-Loss Hopefuls

Odds as of games through 2011-11-27

Stanford Cardinal
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.874 6 0.556 50 30.9 5 14.3 13 162.7 89

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 115 SJSU 3 at   6 Stanford 57 98.8% 162
2011/09/10   6 Stanford 44 at  90 Duke 14 91.4% 155
2011/09/17   5 Stanford 37 at  40 Arizona 10 76.6% 155
2011/10/01  76 UCLA 19 at   4 Stanford 45 95.3% 152
2011/10/08  76 Colorado 7 at   5 Stanford 48 95.2% 155
2011/10/15   4 Stanford 44 at  82 Washington St. 14 93.1% 157
2011/10/22  44 Washington 21 at   4 Stanford 65 91.4% 159
2011/10/29   4 Stanford 56 at  24 USC 48 69.6% 191
2011/11/05   4 Stanford 38 at  61 Oregon St. 13 88.6% 149
2011/11/12   7 Oregon 53 at   4 Stanford 30 59.7% 166
2011/11/19  51 California 28 at   7 Stanford 31 84.8% 152
2011/11/26  15 Notre Dame 14 at   7 Stanford 28 65.8% 174


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Notes: Stanford's season is over, and all that's left to do is wait and see if they get an at-large bid. The Cardinal are one of three teams currently splitting the "anyone-but-Alabama" votes in the BCS poll.

Alabama Crimson Tide
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.962 1 0.616 14 33.4 2 9.1 1 152.3 120

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 100 Kent St. 7 at   3 Alabama 48 98.6% 172
2011/09/10   2 Alabama 27 at  33 Penn State 11 79.5% 164
2011/09/17 106 North Texas 0 at   1 Alabama 41 99.1% 153
2011/09/24  12 Arkansas 14 at   1 Alabama 38 86.1% 145
2011/10/01   1 Alabama 38 at   3 Florida 10 58.5% 146
2011/10/08  86 Vanderbilt 0 at   1 Alabama 34 98.5% 140
2011/10/15   1 Alabama 52 at  72 Mississippi 7 96.9% 141
2011/10/22  42 Tennessee 6 at   1 Alabama 37 96.9% 138
2011/11/05   2 LSU 9 at   1 Alabama 6 72.6% 143
2011/11/12   1 Alabama 24 at  39 Mississippi St. 7 93.7% 155
2011/11/26   1 Alabama 42 at  39 Auburn 14 94.7% 136


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.0
Notes: Like Stanford, the Crimson Tide are done for now and just waiting to see where they end up. Again, if the BCS wants an LSU/Alabama rematch, it'd be difficult to argue against that.

Virginia Tech Hokies
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.815 9 0.502 66 24.4 21 13.5 7 158.0 109

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/10   9 Virginia Tech 17 at  72 East Carolina 10 83.3% 150
2011/09/17  85 Arkansas St. 7 at  11 Virginia Tech 26 93.5% 163
2011/09/24  11 Virginia Tech 30 at  99 Marshall 10 92.2% 157
2011/10/01  23 Clemson 23 at  11 Virginia Tech 3 73.2% 162
2011/10/08  29 Miami-FL 35 at  11 Virginia Tech 38 69.5% 146
2011/10/15  13 Virginia Tech 38 at  71 Wake Forest 17 78.7% 167
2011/10/22  88 Boston College 14 at  12 Virginia Tech 30 93.2% 158
2011/10/29  13 Virginia Tech 14 at  81 Duke 10 81.9% 162
2011/11/10  12 Virginia Tech 37 at  37 Georgia Tech 26 64.2% 147
2011/11/17  43 North Carolina 21 at  13 Virginia Tech 24 70.1% 157
2011/11/26  14 Virginia Tech 38 at  66 Virginia 0 80.1% 151
2011/12/03   9 Virginia Tech 34 vs  35 Clemson 28 72.1% 164


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-1.4
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Clemson Tigers, 72.1%
Notes: They Hokies get a shot at the team that beat them in a freak upset. Then again, freak upsets aren't all that uncommon. Virginia Tech is the second team that's getting "anyone-but-Alabama" title attention, but they are currently much less deserving than Stanford.


Oklahoma State Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.800 12 0.536 55 27.7 9 15.9 27 181.2 4

Date Away Team       Home Team Odds Plays
2011/09/03 110 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 Oklahoma St. 61 96.7% 196
2011/09/08  34 Arizona 14 at  22 Oklahoma St. 37 69.2% 185
2011/09/18  15 Oklahoma St. 59 at  55 Tulsa 33 66.1% 202
2011/09/24  17 Oklahoma St. 30 at  14 Texas A&M 29 38.3% 199
2011/10/08  89 Kansas 28 at  18 Oklahoma St. 70 91.8% 186
2011/10/15  15 Oklahoma St. 38 at  29 Texas 26 51.6% 184
2011/10/22  15 Oklahoma St. 45 at  22 Missouri 24 42.6% 187
2011/10/29  50 Baylor 24 at  12 Oklahoma St. 59 83.3% 190
2011/11/05  35 Kansas St. 45 at  10 Oklahoma St. 52 75.4% 181
2011/11/12  11 Oklahoma St. 66 at  60 Texas Tech 6 77.1% 179
2011/11/18   9 Oklahoma St. 31 at  77 Iowa St. 37 88.6% 211
2011/12/03   5 Oklahoma 38 at  12 Oklahoma St. 35 36.3% 180


Odds of finishing with one loss: 1-in-2.8
Most difficult game left: December 3, vs Oklahoma Sooners, 36.3%
Notes: This is one of those games that's going to depend on one factor my computer doesn't consider: injuries. Right now the computer says that the Sooners are 2-to-1 favorites, but Vegas lists the Cowboys as a 3-point favorite. Currently Oklahoma State is the third -- and least-deserving -- of the "anyone-but-Alabama" teams. Hopefully a loss to the Sooners will cut back on the chaos some.


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Monday, November 28, 2011

Week 14: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Houston (0.180); North Carolina St. (0.075); Iowa St. (0.067); Temple (0.049); Southern Miss. (0.045)

Biggest drops: Clemson (-0.135); Colorado (-0.070); Auburn (-0.056); Washington (-0.051); Miami-FL (-0.048)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- RBA


Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 1.000 0.549 13 26.1 5 5.1 1 156.9 120
2 -- LSU 1.000 0.548 17 26.7 4 6.6 2 160.2 113
3 -- Oregon 0.983 0.531 46 25.3 7 9.9 5 176.2 3
4 +2 Wisconsin 0.975 0.533 42 28.4 1 10.8 16 161.6 107
5 -1 Oklahoma 0.974 0.542 26 23.5 10 10.0 7 171.6 14
6 -1 Oklahoma St. 0.966 0.548 16 26.8 3 14.0 46 173.3 7
7 -- Stanford 0.958 0.544 23 27.5 2 10.8 14 167.0 53
8 +1 Boise St. 0.941 0.463 93 26.0 6 11.8 21 168.8 34
9 +1 South Carolina 0.931 0.544 22 20.9 21 10.0 6 157.9 119
10 -2 Arkansas 0.931 0.566 1 23.7 8 11.5 20 165.5 78
11 +3 Florida St. 0.930 0.549 14 19.2 33 9.7 4 165.8 75
12 -1 Georgia 0.922 0.548 15 22.8 13 10.7 13 159.5 114
13 -1 USC 0.913 0.533 41 22.0 16 10.6 11 166.8 58
14 -1 TCU 0.912 0.465 91 23.6 9 13.4 36 167.9 43
15 +6 Michigan 0.886 0.542 28 22.8 14 12.0 26 167.8 45
16 +6 Texas A&M 0.885 0.555 9 22.6 15 12.0 23 172.7 11
17 -- Florida 0.877 0.556 8 20.4 24 7.9 3 161.3 109
18 +2 Michigan St. 0.874 0.541 29 20.0 25 10.8 15 167.1 52
19 NA Southern Miss. 0.870 0.482 76 20.9 22 15.3 57 168.6 36
20 +3 Virginia Tech 0.860 0.525 57 18.6 37 10.6 10 158.1 118
21 -6 Notre Dame 0.857 0.565 2 18.8 35 11.9 22 165.0 85
22 +2 Texas 0.847 0.523 60 19.9 26 10.1 8 168.3 41
23 -5 Ohio St. 0.838 0.531 48 18.6 38 12.0 25 159.1 116
24 NA Houston 0.826 0.471 85 22.9 12 13.7 39 175.2 4
25 -- Nebraska 0.812 0.532 44 19.3 30 12.5 32 166.8 59
Rankings through games of 2011-11-27


New entries: Southern Miss., Houston.

Dropped out: Clemson, Miami-FL.

I arrived at work this morning to a Hallmark card reading, "With sympathies for your loss." I guess it's only fitting that RBA has now elevated (1b) LSU to the top spot in a tie with (1a) Alabama after dismantling my (10) Razorbacks. All indications suggest little argument with the LSU-Alabama rematch. They possess the top two defenses in the country and top five offenses. Tragically, Alabama can win the title outright, despite only breaking even in the season series, but hey, that's how it works. Beyond the top two, there's remarkable similarity with the BCS poll. RBA swaps Wisconsin and South Carolina in place of Virginia Tech and Houston, but the top 10 is remarkably similar.

After shellacking Tulsa, (24) Houston finally makes an appearance in the poll. With a C-USA title game against (19) Southern Miss, they might crack the top 20 before the season's end. I continue to stand by RBA's claim that Houston has no business in the national title game. I try to steer clear of the "eye test," but if Arkansas can't pass against LSU or Alabama, how do you think Houston will do?


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Week 14: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: LA Tech (0.066); Connecticut (0.054); Vanderbilt (0.054); Minnesota (0.053); USC (0.039)

Biggest drops: UCLA (-0.067); Virginia (-0.059); Illinois (-0.059); Wake Forest (-0.055); Penn State (-0.050)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 14: Top 25 -- TFG


The last full week of the regular season is in the books, so the standings are going to be pretty stable at this point. I'm still recovering from a turkey-and-family-induced coma, as well as the horror of being exposed to a Notre Dame game in person this weekend, so the write-up this week will be short.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Adjusted
Off. Def. Pace
1 -- Alabama 0.962 0.616 14 33.4 2 9.1 1 152.3 120
2 -- LSU 0.941 0.649 5 33.3 3 11.0 2 154.9 118
3 +3 Wisconsin 0.890 0.514 64 34.6 1 15.0 23 157.5 111
4 -1 Boise St. 0.888 0.465 71 31.0 4 13.5 8 164.8 69
5 -- Oklahoma 0.875 0.571 41 26.6 13 12.2 4 179.5 6
6 +1 Stanford 0.874 0.556 50 30.9 5 14.3 13 162.7 89
7 -3 Oregon 0.871 0.608 19 26.9 10 12.5 5 185.0 1
8 -- TCU 0.840 0.431 77 28.7 8 14.8 18 162.8 86
9 +5 Virginia Tech 0.815 0.502 66 24.4 21 13.5 7 158.0 109
10 +1 Florida St. 0.806 0.552 52 24.9 19 14.1 11 157.8 110
11 -2 Arkansas 0.805 0.634 7 30.1 6 17.1 36 169.7 38
12 -2 Oklahoma St. 0.800 0.536 55 27.7 9 15.9 27 181.2 4
13 -1 Michigan 0.799 0.569 43 28.8 7 16.6 33 160.5 100
14 +6 USC 0.797 0.587 29 25.7 15 14.9 21 168.3 45
15 -2 Michigan St. 0.793 0.564 47 22.9 27 13.4 6 163.4 81
16 +2 South Carolina 0.782 0.621 12 24.9 17 14.9 20 159.6 103
17 +2 Georgia 0.768 0.560 48 26.0 14 16.1 28 161.8 92
18 -3 Notre Dame 0.768 0.620 13 22.4 31 13.9 9 168.6 44
19 -3 Florida 0.758 0.660 4 22.8 28 14.4 14 160.5 99
20 -3 Ohio St. 0.754 0.565 46 23.2 25 14.8 19 158.6 107
21 -- Texas A&M 0.751 0.602 21 22.7 29 14.6 16 183.5 2
22 +1 Nebraska 0.742 0.594 24 21.6 34 14.1 10 168.8 42
23 NA Houston 0.721 0.335 111 26.7 12 18.2 53 180.0 5
24 -- Texas 0.721 0.566 44 21.5 35 14.7 17 162.0 91
25 -- Missouri 0.709 0.572 40 20.8 46 14.6 15 170.3 33
Rankings through games of 2011-11-27

New entries: Houston.

Dropped out: Penn State.

Alabama and LSU did nothing to damage everyone's impression of them as the two best teams in college football right now. The current collection of also-rans include a team that might be able to pull of an upset (Stanford), one with about as much of a chance as Arkansas had (Virginia Tech), and one complete long shot (Oklahoma State). Other quality teams are out of the picture thanks to freak upsets (Wisconsin, Oklahoma, and Boise State) or a combination of a freak upset and an existing loss to a top SEC team (Oregon).

The Houston Cougars make their first appearance in our top 25 all season, but my original assessment of them stands. To their credit they've managed to prove they're more 2006 Boise State than 2007 Hawaii, but this year's LSU and Alabama teams are light-years better than the 2006 Oklahoma and 2007 Georgia teams that faced those intruders.

The bottom line is that this may be one year where TFG and the BCS agree on which are the two best teams in college football. However, I urge that everyone remain calm. This is only happening because these teams are so dominant that to say otherwise would be foolish.


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Saturday, November 26, 2011