Wednesday, December 14, 2011

2011 - 2012 Bowl Previews: Part I


Today is Part I of our 2011 - 2012 bowl preview series. Today we'll examine the
  • Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl
    FIU Golden Panthers vs Marshall Thundering Herd
  • Gildan New Mexico Bowl
    Temple Owls vs Wyoming Cowboys
  • R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
    San Diego State Aztecs vs Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
  • Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
    Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
  • BBVA Compass Bowl
    Pittsburgh Panthers vs SMU Mustangs
Full previews after the jump ....

35. Beef 'O' Brady's St. Petersburg Bowl

Tuesday, December 20 at 8:00 PM

FIU Golden Panthers (8 - 4; 5 - 3 Sun Belt)
vs
Marshall Thundering Herd (6 - 6; 5 - 3 Conference-USA)
GUGS Score: 23.2

Eddie

FIU Golden Panthers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.417 70 0.438 111 13.3 89 14.0 45 165.8 74
Marshall Thundering Herd
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.214 95 0.474 83 12.6 98 18.7 82 165.5 80

We care about these games about as much as you do. Unfortunately, we promised to preview all the games and have to make them sound interesting. According to Wikipedia, Beef 'O' Brady's is a Florida-based Irish pub-themed restaurant franchise that does not serve hard liquor. Ironically, this game will likely promote very family unfriendly behavior, featuring two teams that will stumble through the entire game and make you want to shout obscenities at the television. The FIU Golden Panthers (I didn't have to look that up, by the way) muster only a 19.2 +/- 11.8 PPH offense. If it were possible to get any worse, the Thundering Herd manage to do it, featuring a 21.8 +/- 18.3 PPH offense. It boggles the mind how they were able to beat Southern Miss. FIU should run away with this game because Marshall flat out can't play defense (10.8 +/- 15.7 PPH). RBA predicts an FIU victory, 31-20, with 70.3% confidence. This preview has been brought to you by Wikipedia. Please consider a personal appeal from researcher Maryana Pinchuk.

Justin

FIU Golden Panthers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.405 76 0.291 118 17.3 80 20.2 67 165.5 65
Marshall Thundering Herd
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.285 96 0.423 78 15.5 99 22.5 85 164.7 69

While this game might not get much attention outside of the FIU and Marshall campuses, it is noteworthy for one reason: it's even less interesting than last year's least interesting bowl game. In summary: this game will not be close. Nor will it be high-scoring. Nor are the teams any good; in fact, Marshall ties last year's Miami-Ohio Redhawks as the worst team of the bowl season, both clocking in at (96) in the TFG rankings. In light of an actual preview of the game, I provide some trivia about the universities.

  • Marshall University is a coeducational public research university;
  • It is located in Huntington, West Virginia.;
  • It was founded in 1837; and
  • It was named after John Marshall, the fourth Chief Justice of the United States.

  • Florida-International is an American public research university;
  • It is located in metropolitan Miami, Florida;
  • It was founded in 1965; and
  • It is the youngest university to be awarded a Phi Beta Kappa chapter by the Phi Beta Kappa Society, the country's oldest academic honor society.

Also, FIU will probably win. FIU 32, Marshall 29 (63.0%); 165 plays.


FIU Golden Panthers Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/01 106 / 104 North Texas 16 at  85 /  84 FIU 41 166  77.6% /  67.3%
2011/09/09  82 /  70 FIU 24 at  51 /  46 Louisville 17 158  18.6% /  18.0%
2011/09/17  27 /  28 UCF 10 at  74 /  55 FIU 17 151  29.7% /  23.9%
2011/09/24 103 / 102 LA-Lafayette 36 at  68 /  55 FIU 31 172  81.8% /  79.2%
2011/10/01  84 /  73 Duke 31 at  77 /  60 FIU 27 173  63.7% /  71.5%
2011/10/08  78 /  53 FIU 27 at 120 / 119 Akron 17 166  89.9% /  96.8%
2011/10/18  78 /  61 FIU 16 at  87 /  80 Arkansas St. 34 164  45.1% /  67.7%
2011/10/25  89 /  94 Troy 20 at  85 /  69 FIU 23 181  64.2% /  65.9%
2011/11/05  81 /  68 FIU 9 at  98 /  95 Western Kentucky 10 143  58.5% /  73.7%
2011/11/12 117 / 117 FL-Atlantic 7 at  83 /  71 FIU 41 166  87.0% /  92.2%
2011/11/19  79 /  70 FIU 28 at 100 /  96 LA-Monroe 17 199  63.2% /  75.2%
2011/11/26  77 /  72 FIU 31 at 109 / 108 Middle Tenn. 18 174  74.8% /  83.4%
2011/12/20  96 /  95 Marshall -- vs  76 /  70 FIU -- --  63.0% /  70.3%


Marshall Thundering Herd Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/04  93 /  95 Marshall 13 at  19 /  18 West Virginia 34 127   7.1% /   7.7%
2011/09/10  63 /  61 Southern Miss. 20 at  92 /  89 Marshall 26 186  40.9% /  20.8%
2011/09/17  91 /  99 Marshall 7 at  83 /  73 Ohio 44 173  36.3% /  40.3%
2011/09/24  11 /  11 Virginia Tech 30 at  99 / 103 Marshall 10 157   7.8% /   8.5%
2011/10/01  99 / 104 Marshall 17 at  51 /  50 Louisville 13 160  14.7% /  19.6%
2011/10/08  93 / 102 Marshall 6 at  43 /  43 UCF 16 148  15.4% /  10.2%
2011/10/15  97 /  96 Rice 20 at  92 /  99 Marshall 24 158  60.7% /  52.0%
2011/10/22  94 /  99 Marshall 28 at  52 /  45 Houston 63 169  15.2% /  29.1%
2011/10/29 109 / 119 UAB 14 at  96 /  92 Marshall 59 171  73.4% /  63.8%
2011/11/12  89 /  84 Marshall 17 at  40 /  44 Tulsa 59 187  19.4% /  19.5%
2011/11/17  95 /  94 Marshall 23 at 118 / 114 Memphis 22 162  86.7% /  92.6%
2011/11/26  81 /  86 East Carolina 27 at  97 /  95 Marshall 34 170  39.1% /  56.0%
2011/12/20  96 /  95 Marshall -- vs  76 /  70 FIU -- --  37.0% /  29.7%


34. Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, December 17 at 2:00 PM

Temple Owls (7 - 4; 5 - 3 Mid-Atlantic)
vs
Wyoming Cowboys (6 - 4; 5 - 2 Mountain West)
GUGS Score: 24.3

Justin

Temple Owls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.652 31 0.302 117 21.1 43 16.4 32 154.6 119
Wyoming Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.306 93 0.449 73 15.4 102 21.4 77 169.1 41

Shockingly, this game will also be worse than last year's GoDaddy.com Bowl. It's almost as if you open 70 spots for the best of the 120 teams in FBS, you're going to get some duds. At least both of these teams have winning records against FBS competition. The Owls are actually a good team, with a solid win over Maryland and a close loss against Penn State. Two of their conference losses came by a combined seven points. They don't have a stellar offense or defense, but both are respectable enough that they could have done well in an FBS conference. They deserved better than this. Wyoming isn't necessarily a horrible team, either, but they've had serious problems putting points on the board. In the end, expect Temple to simply overwhelm the Cowboys and pull away. Temple 34, Wyoming 25 (81.0%); 161 plays.

Eddie

Temple Owls
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.716 37 0.491 74 16.2 61 12.5 31 161.7 106
Wyoming Cowboys
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.289 83 0.512 62 13.5 87 17.5 75 167.0 56

If you thought Philadelphians were mean to Santa Claus, this game might be a bit much for you. RBA considers Temple to be the #37 team in the country, whereas Wyoming clocks in at #83. Yeah, maybe that's a bit high for the Owls, but it's easy to see why. They play decent defense (6.9 +/- 11.3 PPH) and have managed to lose respectably. In fact, the only team to beat Temple by more than four points was Toledo. In contrast, Wyoming has surrendered a lot of points to better competition but hasn't played that well against lesser opponents, too (10.3 +/- 14.5 PPH). RBA thinks that Temple will pound the Cowboys into paste using a sack full of batteries, 34-17, at 75.5% confidence.


Temple Owls Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/10  64 /  62 Temple 41 at 120 / 118 Akron 3 156  89.4% /  95.9%
2011/09/17  30 /  38 Penn State 14 at  54 /  61 Temple 10 155  46.3% /  33.5%
2011/09/24  57 /  32 Temple 38 at  40 /  45 Maryland 7 153  29.9% /  35.0%
2011/10/01  69 /  67 Toledo 36 at  39 /  20 Temple 13 141  78.1% /  63.4%
2011/10/08  51 /  36 Temple 42 at 103 /  94 Ball St. 0 157  77.3% /  90.1%
2011/10/15 111 / 107 Buffalo 0 at  38 /  30 Temple 34 151  94.1% /  92.3%
2011/10/22  29 /  28 Temple 10 at  95 / 103 Bowling Green 13 161  81.4% /  91.2%
2011/11/02  31 /  36 Temple 31 at  80 /  82 Ohio 35 156  77.2% /  82.4%
2011/11/09  90 /  94 Miami-OH 21 at  31 /  42 Temple 24 155  83.2% /  85.2%
2011/11/19  90 /  93 Army 14 at  37 /  42 Temple 42 140  80.4% /  76.6%
2011/11/25 102 / 103 Kent St. 16 at  31 /  36 Temple 34 150  86.1% /  92.3%
2011/12/17  93 /  83 Wyoming -- vs  31 /  37 Temple -- --  81.0% /  75.5%


Wyoming Cowboys Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/17 105 /  94 Wyoming 28 at  95 /  95 Bowling Green 27 187  25.2% /  39.3%
2011/09/24  18 /  13 Nebraska 38 at 104 /  92 Wyoming 14 161  10.8% /   8.0%
2011/10/08 104 / 107 Wyoming 19 at  91 /  80 Utah St. 63 180  26.5% /  40.3%
2011/10/15 112 / 120 UNLV 14 at 110 / 104 Wyoming 41 164  59.8% /  63.4%
2011/10/29 108 /  96 Wyoming 30 at  66 /  56 SDSU 27 180  12.8% /  17.5%
2011/11/05   9 /  17 TCU 31 at 102 /  94 Wyoming 20 156   6.1% /   6.3%
2011/11/12 100 /  91 Wyoming 25 at  44 /  49 Air Force 17 166  15.6% /  19.4%
2011/11/19 120 / 115 New Mexico 10 at  93 /  84 Wyoming 31 164  89.9% /  92.5%
2011/11/26  89 /  83 Wyoming 14 at   3 /   8 Boise St. 36 155   5.1% /   7.4%
2011/12/03  90 /  83 Wyoming 22 at 110 / 109 Colorado St. 19 168  69.7% /  74.1%
2011/12/17  93 /  83 Wyoming -- vs  31 /  37 Temple -- --  19.0% /  24.5%


33. R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, December 17 at 9:00 PM

San Diego State Aztecs (7 - 4; 4 - 3 Mountain West)
vs
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (7 - 4; 6 - 2 Sun Belt)
GUGS Score: 26.4

Eddie

San Diego State Aztecs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.509 58 0.495 70 16.9 51 16.3 62 168.7 36
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.245 89 0.427 119 16.6 56 21.2 103 167.5 49

The Aztecs took a step back this year without Brady Hoke at the helm, but they remain a respectable team. Their offense is an underpowered but consistent 20.0 +/- 6.2 PPH, and their defense is a sketchy 8.4 +/- 15.9 PPH. Although San Diego State has its shortcomings, it should be able to handle the Ragin Cajuns easily. The Louisiana-Lafayette offense shows a similar 18.3 +/- 3.4 PPH. However, they're completely undone by a horrible 11.8 +/- 18.7 PPH defense. It might not be pretty at times, but the Aztecs should win, 38-24, with 66.1% probability.

Justin

San Diego State Aztecs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.524 59 0.410 86 18.6 66 17.9 49 172.2 24
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.312 91 0.339 114 19.4 60 26.6 107 168.5 45

The Ragin' Cajuns are the third team in our bowl preview to be in the bottom quarter of the TFG rankings, while the Aztecs are (just barely) in the top half. The thing to note is that both teams have pretty evenly matched offenses, but it's a different story on defense. The Aztecs allow a respectable 17.9 PPH on defense, while the Ragin' Cajuns don't so much have a "defense" as they have "a group of 11 players that escort the opponent's offense down the field." At 26.6 PPH, they rate as one of the 15 worst defenses in all of FBS. This will be a somewhat up-tempo game with mid-level offenses; one will go against a mid-level defense, the other will score a lot. SDSU 38, LA-Lafayette 31 (70.7%); 170 plays.


San Diego State Aztecs Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/10  61 /  43 SDSU 23 at  85 /  83 Army 20 145  55.3% /  70.2%
2011/09/17  88 /  56 Washington St. 24 at  64 /  46 SDSU 42 180  71.8% /  88.0%
2011/09/24  59 /  56 SDSU 7 at  31 /  39 Michigan 28 162  24.2% /  41.3%
2011/10/08  10 /   8 TCU 27 at  65 /  60 SDSU 14 165  22.1% /  22.6%
2011/10/13  70 /  57 SDSU 41 at  58 /  51 Air Force 27 163  33.6% /  37.8%
2011/10/29 108 /  96 Wyoming 30 at  66 /  56 SDSU 27 180  87.2% /  82.5%
2011/11/05 120 / 118 New Mexico 7 at  65 /  57 SDSU 35 148  96.3% /  96.1%
2011/11/12  64 /  57 SDSU 18 at 112 / 112 Colorado St. 15 160  81.9% /  86.5%
2011/11/19   3 /   9 Boise St. 52 at  63 /  57 SDSU 35 184   9.4% /  12.1%
2011/11/26  57 /  57 SDSU 31 at 115 / 119 UNLV 14 159  87.5% /  85.5%
2011/12/03  86 /  85 Fresno St. 28 at  59 /  58 SDSU 35 173  68.2% /  65.7%
2011/12/17  91 /  89 LA-Lafayette -- vs  59 /  58 SDSU -- --  70.7% /  66.1%


Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 110 / 112 LA-Lafayette 34 at  16 /  12 Oklahoma St. 61 196   3.3% /   5.6%
2011/09/10 107 / 105 LA-Lafayette 20 at 103 / 104 Kent St. 12 165  34.3% /  38.5%
2011/09/24 103 / 102 LA-Lafayette 36 at  68 /  55 FIU 31 172  18.2% /  20.8%
2011/10/01 116 / 112 FL-Atlantic 34 at  98 /  95 LA-Lafayette 37 180  80.8% /  81.2%
2011/10/08  75 /  88 Troy 17 at  99 /  90 LA-Lafayette 31 181  37.9% /  38.7%
2011/10/15 103 / 105 North Texas 10 at  94 /  88 LA-Lafayette 30 149  68.4% /  68.0%
2011/10/22  93 /  88 LA-Lafayette 23 at 104 /  98 Western Kentucky 42 163  47.6% /  70.7%
2011/10/29  95 /  90 LA-Lafayette 45 at  94 / 103 Middle Tenn. 20 183  37.4% /  67.5%
2011/11/05 104 / 103 LA-Monroe 35 at  91 /  88 LA-Lafayette 36 184  65.2% /  65.6%
2011/11/12  93 /  89 LA-Lafayette 21 at  74 /  72 Arkansas St. 30 188  32.9% /  43.1%
2011/11/26  90 /  89 LA-Lafayette 37 at  61 /  58 Arizona 45 170  29.2% /  36.6%
2011/12/17  91 /  89 LA-Lafayette -- vs  59 /  58 SDSU -- --  29.3% /  33.9%


32. Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Friday, December 30 at 6:40 PM

Mississippi State Bulldogs (5 - 6; 2 - 6 SEC)
vs
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (5 - 6; 5 - 3 ACC)
GUGS Score: 31.2

Justin

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.635 35 0.612 17 17.8 74 14.2 11 167.4 53
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.406 74 0.573 41 18.2 69 21.2 71 169.6 37

And here we have it: the first bowl game between two teams with losing records against FBS opponents. Our computers don't look at games against FCS/I-AA competition, so we see what the packed bowl season has brought us. To be fair, the Bulldogs lost to vastly superior teams that would be most anyone -- Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, and South Carolina -- while the Wake Forest is ... well, a product of the ACC. Just like with our last preview, this game is a story of two equivalent offenses and two diametrically opposed defenses. The bad news for the Demon Deacons is that the Bulldog defense is on par with top teams like Virginia Tech and Florida State; the good news is that Wake Forest has a 1-1 record against those teams. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, so expect the Bulldogs to pull away here.  Mississippi St. 32, Wake Forest 27 (71.8%); 168 plays.

Eddie

Mississippi State Bulldogs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.725 35 0.559 5 16.0 63 10.6 9 162.6 102
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.395 73 0.512 63 14.6 75 16.4 64 167.5 48

Records don't tell the story here. Despite a losing record against FBS competition, Mississippi State is actually RBA #35 thanks to a respectable showing against a brutal schedule, including (1a) LSU, (1b) Alabama, (9) Arkansas, (10) South Carolina, and (12) Georgia. Statistically, they were likely to beat at least one of those teams by chance, but it's perfectly acceptable to go 0-5 against that group. The (44) Auburn loss was a little ugly, but even then, the Bulldogs were stopped an inch from the tying score. Wake Forest, on the other hand, didn't play quite the same schedule, but had similar outcomes. The Demon Deacons lost a bunch of games they were expected to lose and won a game where they were expected to be blown out (Florida State). This game should fall to the defenses. Mississippi State has played well against bad teams and poorly against good teams with 2.1 +/- 17.0 PPH efficiency. Wake Forest hasn't been particularly good against anybody but really bad against good teams at 6.6 +/- 19.7 PPH. Mississippi State boasts a better offense, too, so this one should be all Bulldogs, 34-17, with 71.8% confidence.


Mississippi State Bulldogs Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/01  32 /  21 Mississippi St. 59 at 117 / 115 Memphis 14 192  90.7% /  96.4%
2011/09/10  32 /  22 Mississippi St. 34 at  17 /  17 Auburn 41 191  26.4% /  40.2%
2011/09/15   7 /   8 LSU 19 at  35 /  26 Mississippi St. 6 150  30.6% /  35.9%
2011/09/24  76 /  74 LA Tech 20 at  44 /  28 Mississippi St. 26 180  78.1% /  83.0%
2011/10/01  44 /  35 Mississippi St. 10 at  21 /  22 Georgia 24 169  24.7% /  43.3%
2011/10/08  46 /  33 Mississippi St. 21 at 112 / 115 UAB 3 161  84.4% /  92.4%
2011/10/15  18 /  11 South Carolina 14 at  45 /  36 Mississippi St. 12 163  39.2% /  43.1%
2011/10/29  37 /  29 Mississippi St. 28 at  82 /  61 Kentucky 16 149  66.2% /  62.9%
2011/11/12   1 /   1 Alabama 24 at  39 /  30 Mississippi St. 7 155   6.3% /   4.7%
2011/11/19  39 /  33 Mississippi St. 17 at  12 /   8 Arkansas 44 173  30.3% /  39.2%
2011/11/26  92 /  90 Mississippi 3 at  43 /  35 Mississippi St. 31 151  78.7% /  83.8%
2011/12/30  74 /  73 Wake Forest -- vs  35 /  35 Mississippi St. -- --  71.8% /  71.8%


Wake Forest Demon Deacons Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/01  94 /  91 Wake Forest 29 at  76 /  68 Syracuse 36 177  27.1% /  27.3%
2011/09/10  24 /  35 North Carolina St. 27 at  88 /  95 Wake Forest 34 163  24.2% /  14.8%
2011/10/01  83 /  84 Wake Forest 27 at  88 /  88 Boston College 19 170  43.3% /  45.9%
2011/10/08  16 /  14 Florida St. 30 at  82 /  86 Wake Forest 35 181  18.6% /   9.2%
2011/10/15  13 /  23 Virginia Tech 38 at  71 /  81 Wake Forest 17 167  21.3% /  17.2%
2011/10/22  71 /  81 Wake Forest 24 at  82 /  70 Duke 23 170  45.5% /  49.1%
2011/10/29  72 /  85 Wake Forest 24 at  39 /  42 North Carolina 49 162  22.2% /  29.9%
2011/11/05  14 /  15 Notre Dame 24 at  77 /  91 Wake Forest 17 146  17.7% /  20.2%
2011/11/12  72 /  88 Wake Forest 28 at  24 /  14 Clemson 31 183  17.9% /  16.2%
2011/11/19  75 / 109 Maryland 10 at  72 /  77 Wake Forest 31 181  51.6% /  54.1%
2011/11/26  69 /  31 Vanderbilt 41 at  67 /  73 Wake Forest 7 164  51.0% /  19.3%
2011/12/30  74 /  73 Wake Forest -- vs  35 /  35 Mississippi St. -- --  28.2% /  28.2%


31. BBVA Compass Bowl

Saturday, January 7 at 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh Panthers (5 - 6; 4 - 3 Big East)
vs
SMU Mustangs (6 - 5; 5 - 3 Conference-USA)
GUGS Score: 31.4

Eddie

Pittsburgh Panthers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.739 33 0.531 47 15.9 66 12.3 27 164.8 87
SMU Mustangs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.348 78 0.483 75 14.3 81 17.0 71 165.8 73

I had no idea that RBA thought Pittsburgh was the #33 team in the country until this write-up because they seem so unremarkable. Their offense is blase at 23.4 +/- 15.0 PPH, and their defense is a pedestrian 9.1 +/- 6.3 PPH. However, they should roll in this game because SMU can't play a lick of defense at 8.6 +/- 16.7 PPH. The Panthers should handle the Mustangs, 34-17, with 71.0% confidence.

Justin

Pittsburgh Panthers
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.658 30 0.556 50 20.7 47 15.9 27 167.4 52
SMU Mustangs
Year WinPct SoS Off. Def. Pace
2011 0.422 70 0.453 71 17.5 77 19.9 65 161.3 96

I have to admit that I was surprised, too, to see the Panthers ranked at #30 by TFG. The Big East is very ACC-ish in their football reputation -- or lack thereof -- and to see a 5-6 Big East team make the top quarter of the TFG rankings is ... eye-opening. If you look at their schedule, though, you see that the Panthers lost four games by a combined 11 points. This is a team that very easily could be 7-4 or even 8-3. SMU isn't quite as bad as Eddie claims they are, but they're still going to have an uphill battle here; they're spotting Pitt 3.2 PPH on offense and 4.0 PPH on defense. During an average game this works out to about 10 points, which explains why Pitt are strong favorites. Pittsburgh 33, SMU 27 (72.5%); 164 plays.


Pittsburgh Panthers Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/03 114 / 118 Buffalo 16 at  24 /  20 Pittsburgh 35 186  96.7% /  97.1%
2011/09/17  28 /  33 Pittsburgh 27 at  20 /  19 Iowa 31 183  33.6% /  46.9%
2011/09/24  24 /  23 Notre Dame 15 at  30 /  34 Pittsburgh 12 168  54.6% /  55.6%
2011/09/29  34 /  42 South Florida 17 at  33 /  23 Pittsburgh 44 190  60.5% /  51.9%
2011/10/08  28 /  21 Pittsburgh 10 at  58 /  59 Rutgers 34 170  63.8% /  70.5%
2011/10/15  37 /  37 Utah 26 at  34 /  40 Pittsburgh 14 170  60.5% /  53.3%
2011/10/26  63 /  69 Connecticut 20 at  38 /  38 Pittsburgh 35 176  73.3% /  70.5%
2011/11/05  36 /  35 Cincinnati 26 at  33 /  38 Pittsburgh 23 171  54.7% /  58.8%
2011/11/12  36 /  36 Pittsburgh 21 at  50 /  54 Louisville 14 145  53.6% /  41.9%
2011/11/25  33 /  33 Pittsburgh 20 at  28 /  34 West Virginia 21 175  46.6% /  45.8%
2011/12/03  80 /  87 Syracuse 20 at  29 /  33 Pittsburgh 33 163  75.3% /  70.8%
2012/01/07  70 /  78 SMU -- vs  30 /  33 Pittsburgh -- --  72.5% /  71.0%


SMU Mustangs Season Summary

Date TFG RBA Away Team       TFG RBA Home Team Plays Odds
TFG / RBA
2011/09/04  73 /  77 SMU 14 at  31 /  28 Texas A&M 46 157  17.4% /  25.9%
2011/09/10  96 /  96 UTEP 17 at  84 /  84 SMU 28 155  69.1% /  63.6%
2011/09/24  80 /  79 SMU 42 at 119 / 120 Memphis 0 159  85.6% /  83.4%
2011/10/01  67 /  69 SMU 40 at   9 /   7 TCU 33 179   8.0% /   8.2%
2011/10/15  42 /  48 UCF 17 at  63 /  50 SMU 38 149  47.2% /  22.3%
2011/10/22  46 /  52 SMU 3 at  59 /  42 Southern Miss. 27 158  46.1% /  47.8%
2011/10/29  54 /  62 SMU 7 at  49 /  53 Tulsa 38 184  35.3% /  42.4%
2011/11/05 114 / 115 Tulane 24 at  60 /  64 SMU 45 163  88.8% /  86.5%
2011/11/12  57 /  64 Navy 24 at  65 /  66 SMU 17 150  49.3% /  54.3%
2011/11/19  65 /  72 SMU 7 at  32 /  45 Houston 37 167  31.2% /  38.5%
2011/11/26  96 /  99 Rice 24 at  74 /  78 SMU 27 158  66.5% /  75.5%
2012/01/07  70 /  78 SMU -- vs  30 /  33 Pittsburgh -- --  27.5% /  29.0%


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