Welcome to the fourth and final (for 2011) edition of our Tuesday Trivia feature. Today's edition is the second part of a two-part look at the biggest swings in team strength over the course of consecutive seasons. Previously we examined the depths of failure; this week we'll examine the heights of success. Which teams went from outright garbage to stunning mediocrity? Which teams went from mid-pack to the top of their conference in 12 short months? As always, we confine our search to seasons that span two consecutive years in the 2003-2004 to 2011-2012 span.
The full countdown is after the jump.
#5: UTEP Miners
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2003
0.091
112
0.378
100
12.6
106
31.5
113
174.8
25
2004
0.397
74
0.369
98
18.0
58
21.3
79
177.1
13
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2003/08/30
114
UTEP
7
at
76
Arizona
42
12.5%
2003/09/13
77
SDSU
34
at
114
UTEP
0
13.1%
2003/09/20
114
UTEP
14
at
46
Louisville
42
1.3%
2003/10/04
114
UTEP
21
at
109
SMU
19
23.3%
2003/10/11
76
LA Tech
38
at
114
UTEP
35
11.0%
2003/10/25
113
UTEP
15
at
63
Hawaii
31
4.4%
2003/11/01
94
Tulsa
56
at
113
UTEP
28
21.6%
2003/11/08
103
SJSU
69
at
111
UTEP
41
33.3%
2003/11/15
111
UTEP
21
at
16
Boise St.
51
1.6%
2003/11/22
111
UTEP
14
at
96
Rice
45
21.9%
2003/11/29
55
Fresno St.
23
at
111
UTEP
20
6.9%
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2004/09/02
112
UTEP
9
at
64
Arizona St.
41
5.6%
2004/09/18
10
Boise St.
47
at
112
UTEP
31
2.0%
2004/10/02
104
New Mexico St.
0
at
107
UTEP
45
53.3%
2004/10/09
92
UTEP
24
at
49
Fresno St.
21
11.7%
2004/10/16
62
Hawaii
20
at
90
UTEP
51
33.9%
2004/10/23
83
UTEP
44
at
81
LA Tech
27
38.0%
2004/10/30
77
UTEP
38
at
110
SJSU
20
68.9%
2004/11/13
89
Rice
28
at
73
UTEP
35
65.8%
2004/11/20
115
SMU
27
at
73
UTEP
57
83.8%
2004/11/27
73
UTEP
35
at
97
Tulsa
37
69.3%
2004/12/29
74
UTEP
28
vs
61
Colorado
33
39.7%
This turnaround isn't notable so much for the team, but instead for the coach. The 2002-2003 season was Mike Price's 14th year as the head coach at Washington State, and saw him lead the Cougars to a 10-3 record that claimed a portion of the Pac-10 title and a berth to the 2003 Rose Bowl. Price had accepted a position as the next head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide, but certain alleged extracurricular activities saw that job vanish. After spending a year away from college football, theperenniallyatrocious UTEP Miners offered Price another chance. Within a year Price had the Miners turned around, including a stretch of improbable wins that may look familiar to regular readers. The primary change was on defense, where the Miners went from allowing an abysmal 31.5 Points Per Hundred plays to a merely unpalatable 21.3 PPH. Throw in a 5.4 PPH shift on offense, and the Miners made a 15.6 PPH shift in the right direction overall. Against the weak WAC schedule that averages out to a net of over three touchdowns per game. It's not surprising that the Miners went to the 2004 Houston Bowl, losing a close game to Colorado (a team facing its own issues at the time).
#4: Texas A&M Aggies
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2003
0.399
69
0.619
12
17.7
66
20.8
74
171.5
56
2004
0.706
25
0.669
3
22.4
26
15.8
31
174.4
26
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2003/08/30
104
Arkansas St.
11
at
31
Texas A&M
26
94.5%
2003/09/06
50
Utah
26
at
31
Texas A&M
28
75.9%
2003/09/18
29
Texas A&M
19
at
11
Virginia Tech
35
20.9%
2003/09/27
22
Pittsburgh
37
at
37
Texas A&M
26
48.0%
2003/10/04
34
Texas A&M
28
at
32
Texas Tech
59
39.5%
2003/10/11
103
Baylor
10
at
43
Texas A&M
73
93.2%
2003/10/18
35
Texas A&M
12
at
18
Nebraska
48
27.8%
2003/10/25
21
Oklahoma St.
38
at
49
Texas A&M
10
43.8%
2003/11/01
90
Kansas
33
at
57
Texas A&M
45
77.3%
2003/11/08
55
Texas A&M
0
at
1
Oklahoma
77
4.8%
2003/11/15
65
Texas A&M
22
at
51
Missouri
45
33.0%
2003/11/28
4
Texas
46
at
66
Texas A&M
15
7.2%
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2004/09/02
70
Texas A&M
21
at
31
Utah
41
13.8%
2004/09/11
84
Wyoming
0
at
68
Texas A&M
31
73.9%
2004/09/18
32
Clemson
6
at
60
Texas A&M
27
40.8%
2004/10/02
10
Kansas St.
30
at
42
Texas A&M
42
31.7%
2004/10/09
36
Texas A&M
34
at
83
Iowa St.
3
75.0%
2004/10/16
31
Texas A&M
36
at
18
Oklahoma St.
20
28.5%
2004/10/23
60
Colorado
26
at
23
Texas A&M
29
81.2%
2004/10/30
25
Texas A&M
34
at
103
Baylor
35
88.9%
2004/11/06
2
Oklahoma
42
at
32
Texas A&M
35
13.1%
2004/11/13
23
Texas Tech
25
at
28
Texas A&M
32
50.5%
2004/11/26
25
Texas A&M
13
at
6
Texas
26
25.7%
2005/01/01
25
Texas A&M
7
vs
30
Tennessee
38
52.9%
The 2003 Aggies weren't a bad team, per se, but they faced a difficult schedule that included eventual National Runner-Ups Oklahoma, Texas under Vince Young, and a Texas Tech team that was hitting its stride. The Aggies were the unfortunate recipients of a 77-0 beatdown by Oklahoma, as Sooner coach Bob Stoops knew he had to impress the BCS computers to have a shot at the title game. This one game alone bumped the Aggies down about 10 spots in the rankings. They finished the 2003 season with a 0.399 expected winning percentage thanks to a mediocre offense (17.7 PPH) and defense (20.8 PPH). The 2004 season, though saw a turnaround on both sides of the ball. Offense and defense each improved by around 5.0 PPH, or about a net two touchdown turnaround against an average schedule. The Aggies, however, played anything but an average schedule; their 2004 schedule was the 3rd-hardest in FBS, but still yielded a 7-5 record.
Additional trivia: the head coach of the Aggies was Dennis Franchione, who up until 2003 had been the head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide. Franchione left Alabama for the Texas A&M job, leaving the position open (briefly) for .... eventual UTEP head coach Mike Price.
#3: San Diego State Aztecs
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2009
0.220
104
0.455
77
15.1
99
25.1
104
171.0
26
2010
0.531
57
0.408
87
20.5
43
19.5
59
175.0
14
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2009/09/05
115
SDSU
14
at
76
UCLA
33
13.0%
2009/09/19
113
SDSU
20
at
114
Idaho
34
42.8%
2009/09/26
115
SDSU
14
at
50
Air Force
26
6.3%
2009/10/03
117
New Mexico St.
17
at
113
SDSU
34
67.1%
2009/10/17
19
BYU
38
at
112
SDSU
28
9.7%
2009/10/24
110
SDSU
42
at
73
Colorado St.
28
18.9%
2009/10/31
112
New Mexico
20
at
105
SDSU
23
69.4%
2009/11/07
2
TCU
55
at
106
SDSU
12
2.6%
2009/11/14
108
Wyoming
30
at
104
SDSU
27
61.8%
2009/11/21
105
SDSU
7
at
18
Utah
38
8.4%
2009/11/28
105
SDSU
24
at
93
UNLV
28
39.7%
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2010/09/11
105
SDSU
41
at
120
New Mexico St.
21
67.3%
2010/09/18
103
SDSU
24
at
36
Missouri
27
8.7%
2010/09/25
79
Utah St.
7
at
103
SDSU
41
41.0%
2010/10/09
85
SDSU
21
at
50
BYU
24
20.7%
2010/10/16
39
Air Force
25
at
85
SDSU
27
32.2%
2010/10/23
77
SDSU
30
at
117
New Mexico
20
79.7%
2010/10/30
83
SDSU
48
at
108
Wyoming
38
63.9%
2010/11/06
103
Colorado St.
19
at
83
SDSU
24
70.6%
2010/11/13
80
SDSU
35
at
1
TCU
40
1.7%
2010/11/20
17
Utah
38
at
70
SDSU
34
19.6%
2010/11/27
103
UNLV
14
at
66
SDSU
48
77.8%
2010/12/23
38
Navy
14
at
62
SDSU
35
38.1%
Here we see yet another example of outright-garbage-to-stunning-mediocrity. The San Diego State Aztecs hired Brady Hoke to turn the team around, and turn it around he did. Hoke's first season in San Diego saw a dismal performance on both sides of the ball, with a 15.1 PPH offense and a 25.1 PPH defense. Within 12 months, though, those had changed to 20.5 PPH and 19.5 PPH, respectively. More importantly, the Aztecs were winning. The 2009 Aztecs could barely manage a win, and when they could it was against inferior competition, by the narrowest of margins, or both. Oh what a difference a year makes. Improvements on both sides of the ball meant that the Aztecs were able to be competitive in games they had no business playing in the first place. After smashing their way through the Mountain West, the Aztecs went to the 2010 Poinsettia Bowl and stomped all over Navy. At the time both of our computers said Navy had the edge, but both were proven wrong. Hoke parlayed his success into the head coaching job at Michigan, and is attempting to work the same magic in the new Big 10 as he did in the Mountain West.
#2: Illinois Fighting Illini
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2006
0.277
93
0.621
18
14.4
94
21.2
86
171.9
26
2007
0.620
40
0.629
15
21.1
40
17.3
42
169.0
56
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2006/09/09
99
Illinois
0
at
59
Rutgers
33
12.7%
2006/09/16
88
Syracuse
31
at
109
Illinois
21
34.8%
2006/09/23
15
Iowa
24
at
105
Illinois
7
5.5%
2006/09/30
104
Illinois
23
at
37
Michigan St.
20
5.4%
2006/10/07
76
Indiana
34
at
102
Illinois
32
36.1%
2006/10/14
100
Ohio
20
at
103
Illinois
17
56.5%
2006/10/21
101
Illinois
12
at
25
Penn State
26
5.0%
2006/10/28
103
Illinois
24
at
14
Wisconsin
30
2.9%
2006/11/04
1
Ohio St.
17
at
96
Illinois
10
1.6%
2006/11/11
59
Purdue
42
at
92
Illinois
31
32.4%
2006/11/18
91
Illinois
16
at
64
Northwestern
27
33.8%
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2007/09/01
32
Missouri
40
vs
95
Illinois
34
15.3%
2007/09/15
75
Illinois
41
at
104
Syracuse
20
57.8%
2007/09/22
74
Illinois
27
at
64
Indiana
14
33.6%
2007/09/29
14
Penn State
20
at
66
Illinois
27
23.3%
2007/10/06
17
Wisconsin
26
at
58
Illinois
31
30.0%
2007/10/13
52
Illinois
6
at
45
Iowa
10
38.3%
2007/10/20
8
Michigan
27
at
53
Illinois
17
28.0%
2007/10/27
70
Ball St.
17
at
54
Illinois
28
71.9%
2007/11/03
51
Illinois
44
at
78
Minnesota
17
60.3%
2007/11/10
47
Illinois
28
at
1
Ohio St.
21
6.6%
2007/11/17
72
Northwestern
22
at
36
Illinois
41
72.7%
2008/01/01
5
USC
49
vs
33
Illinois
17
23.2%
The second and third years of the Ron Zook experiment at Illinois saw the gamble start to pay dividends. Coach Zook made a brief appearance in our inaugural trivia feature, but not in a good way. After Florida and Zook parted ways, the Illini snatched him up. The 2006 season saw four losses by a touchdown or less, but with the exception of the Ohio game, Illinois were clear underdogs. Fast-forward one year, and the Illini start to see big improvements on offense and modest improvements on defense. A net 10.6 PPH combined swing was good enough to change Illinois from a 1-10 team to an 8-4 team with a huge upset over Ohio State; the Illini only had a 6.6% chance of winning in Columbus, but defeated a top-ranked team for the first time in 50 years. It appeared that Illinois was poised for a string of success in the Big 10, but didn't really hit their stride again until this year. The Illini are currently 5-0, and later this week we'll examine their odds of running the gauntlet through December.
#1: Mississippi Rebels
Year
WinPct
SoS
Off.
Def.
Pace
2007
0.400
76
0.663
1
16.2
85
19.0
56
161.7
103
2008
0.774
15
0.618
11
24.7
16
15.1
24
163.3
96
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2007/09/01
78
Mississippi
23
at
94
Memphis
21
43.9%
2007/09/08
41
Missouri
38
at
76
Mississippi
25
33.9%
2007/09/15
71
Mississippi
17
at
76
Vanderbilt
31
38.7%
2007/09/22
5
Florida
30
at
78
Mississippi
24
9.6%
2007/09/29
74
Mississippi
17
at
12
Georgia
45
9.8%
2007/10/06
110
LA Tech
0
at
78
Mississippi
24
82.5%
2007/10/13
32
Alabama
27
at
73
Mississippi
24
31.9%
2007/10/20
24
Arkansas
44
at
72
Mississippi
8
30.0%
2007/10/27
76
Mississippi
3
at
10
Auburn
17
8.7%
2007/11/17
2
LSU
41
at
77
Mississippi
24
5.3%
2007/11/23
71
Mississippi
14
at
67
Mississippi St.
17
47.0%
Date
Away Team
Home Team
Odds
2008/08/30
92
Memphis
24
at
75
Mississippi
41
64.7%
2008/09/06
65
Mississippi
28
at
38
Wake Forest
30
22.6%
2008/09/20
43
Vanderbilt
23
at
57
Mississippi
17
48.6%
2008/09/27
56
Mississippi
31
at
2
Florida
30
6.2%
2008/10/04
33
South Carolina
31
at
52
Mississippi
24
45.0%
2008/10/18
48
Mississippi
20
at
11
Alabama
24
15.7%
2008/10/25
50
Mississippi
23
at
54
Arkansas
21
39.3%
2008/11/01
25
Auburn
7
at
53
Mississippi
17
38.5%
2008/11/15
104
LA-Monroe
0
at
42
Mississippi
59
86.7%
2008/11/22
27
Mississippi
31
at
15
LSU
13
38.0%
2008/11/28
87
Mississippi St.
0
at
24
Mississippi
45
84.4%
2009/01/02
11
Texas Tech
34
vs
16
Mississippi
47
45.8%
Houston Nutt. Houston Nutt? Houston Nutt! I don't have much to say here, but I'm really hoping Eddie will chime in. The 2008 Ole Miss team was the first under Nutt, and most of the turnaround under the new coach was on the offense (8.5 PPH) with only modest gains on the defense (3.9 PPH). Eddie might point to Texas transfer Jevan Snead as the catalyst for the Rebels' turnaround from the 2007 season, but victories over Florida, Auburn, LSU, and even Arkansas show that it was a team effort. This one-year turnaround of 0.374 and an improvement from 76th to 15th in the TFG rankings is good for the best improvement for the years in which we've been keeping track.
I await for Eddie to weigh in in the comments section.
