Week 10: Full Rankings -- RBA

Biggest jumps: Syracuse (0.104); Marshall (0.083); Nebraska (0.064); Iowa St. (0.062); Air Force (0.062)

Biggest drops: Maryland (-0.104); SMU (-0.095); Navy (-0.067); Illinois (-0.057); Kansas St. (-0.055)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Top 25 -- RBA

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	1.000	0.548	15	26.3	4	4.9	1	157.2	120
2	--	Stanford	0.992	0.543	26	29.2	1	10.3	10	167.2	50
3	--	LSU	0.992	0.551	12	23.8	9	6.5	2	160.6	112
4	+1	Oregon	0.975	0.531	44	26.2	5	9.4	4	176.2	3
5	+1	Oklahoma	0.975	0.545	23	25.4	7	9.6	5	171.2	17
6	+2	Oklahoma St.	0.957	0.549	14	26.9	3	13.9	40	172.9	8
7	-3	Wisconsin	0.957	0.536	37	28.0	2	11.2	17	162.0	107
8	-1	Boise St.	0.957	0.462	93	26.2	6	9.7	7	168.9	33
9	+1	Southern Miss.	0.941	0.484	76	21.3	17	14.4	45	168.6	36
10	+1	South Carolina	0.923	0.542	28	20.5	21	9.7	6	158.0	119
11	-2	Clemson	0.922	0.527	57	20.4	23	13.4	36	166.6	63
12	+6	Georgia	0.909	0.552	9	19.9	28	11.3	18	159.7	114
13	+8	Ohio St.	0.908	0.531	46	19.2	36	10.0	9	159.3	116
14	-1	TCU	0.904	0.461	94	23.8	8	12.9	32	168.1	41
15	-3	Arizona St.	0.904	0.529	51	21.3	16	10.5	13	173.9	6
16	+1	Florida St.	0.901	0.550	13	20.4	25	10.4	12	166.2	68
17	+2	Florida	0.886	0.556	8	20.9	20	8.2	3	161.5	109
18	+6	Nebraska	0.874	0.531	47	21.5	14	12.6	27	166.7	61
19	-3	Arkansas	0.867	0.568	1	22.1	12	12.8	30	165.7	76
20	-5	Texas A&M	0.867	0.552	10	20.5	22	12.1	24	172.1	12
21	-7	Michigan St.	0.867	0.544	25	19.6	30	10.3	11	167.2	53
22	-2	USC	0.865	0.535	40	18.7	41	12.0	23	166.9	58
23	-1	Notre Dame	0.835	0.565	2	21.1	18	11.5	21	164.9	84
24	-1	Iowa	0.826	0.521	60	18.1	43	13.7	37	163.9	93
25	NA	Virginia Tech	0.800	0.526	58	17.3	50	11.4	19	158.3	118

Rankings through games of 2011-10-30

New entries: Virginia Tech.

Dropped out: West Virginia.

No change in the top three this week, as (2) Stanford put up pretty good numbers against a ranked (22) USC. You may have heard that (1) Alabama and (3) LSU were off this week in preparation for Saturday's Game of the Century*. The upwardly mobile teams this week are (13) Ohio State, (12) Georgia, and (18) Nebraska. Each of these teams exceeded expectations on defense, which tends to distinguish between ranked teams more than offense.

The (9) Southern Miss anomaly still exists this week, but thanks to an awesome pointer by reader DSMok1, we may be able to tweak the algorithm a bit to fix it. He has a really slick write up of the Working-Hotelling Method and its application to the NCAA basketball tournament. I usually have little time to adjust my algorithm mid-season, but I'll make an effort to set aside some time this week to incorporate this into my algorithm.

* As opposed to Alabama-Florida 2009, Michigan-Ohio State 2006, USC-Texas 2006, Nebraska-Oklahoma 2001, Nebraska-Oklahoma 2000, ... Why haven't we moved past this by now?

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Week 10: Full Rankings -- TFG

Biggest jumps: Iowa St. (0.083); Texas (0.069); Marshall (0.064); UCF (0.063); Air Force (0.062)

Biggest drops: Texas Tech (-0.097); Kansas (-0.060); California (-0.060); Kansas St. (-0.059); North Carolina St. (-0.058)

Full rankings after the jump.

Week 10: Top 25 -- TFG

Rank	+/-	Team	WinPct	SoS		Adjusted
						Off.		Def.		Pace
1	--	Alabama	0.969	0.562	39	35.4	1	8.9	1	152.9	120
2	--	LSU	0.933	0.663	4	33.3	2	11.6	2	156.6	114
3	--	Boise St.	0.922	0.475	72	31.4	5	11.7	4	163.2	85
4	--	Stanford	0.897	0.513	63	31.4	4	13.2	8	163.3	84
5	+1	Oklahoma	0.895	0.581	32	27.5	8	11.7	3	179.2	7
6	-1	Oregon	0.879	0.586	29	26.8	10	12.1	7	185.3	1
7	--	Wisconsin	0.869	0.538	50	32.2	3	15.1	23	159.8	106
8	+1	Ohio St.	0.842	0.584	30	23.4	29	12.0	6	160.1	103
9	-1	TCU	0.831	0.385	95	27.6	6	14.6	18	163.4	82
10	+2	Oklahoma St.	0.815	0.557	41	27.6	7	15.3	24	181.4	3
11	+5	Florida St.	0.802	0.563	38	25.3	16	14.5	16	159.5	107
12	+7	Nebraska	0.793	0.574	35	24.3	21	14.2	14	165.6	65
13	-2	Florida	0.792	0.650	7	24.1	23	14.1	13	160.6	101
14	+6	Notre Dame	0.788	0.628	14	23.6	28	14.0	12	168.8	44
15	-2	Virginia Tech	0.787	0.509	65	23.2	31	13.7	10	158.2	111
16	-6	Michigan St.	0.779	0.633	13	22.5	37	13.6	9	161.0	99
17	--	South Carolina	0.773	0.580	33	24.1	22	14.8	21	160.4	102
18	--	Michigan	0.769	0.503	67	26.7	11	16.5	31	160.9	100
19	+5	USC	0.762	0.621	17	25.0	17	15.7	25	169.4	38
20	-6	Texas A&M	0.755	0.604	23	23.1	32	14.7	19	180.0	6
21	+2	Arizona St.	0.746	0.640	9	22.3	40	14.5	15	175.1	15
22	-7	Arkansas	0.743	0.593	26	27.0	9	17.7	42	170.2	29
23	NA	Texas	0.741	0.539	49	22.7	36	14.9	22	162.0	96
24	-3	Clemson	0.739	0.592	27	24.0	24	15.8	26	169.9	33
25	NA	Missouri	0.736	0.628	15	21.9	42	14.6	17	172.4	20

Rankings through games of 2011-10-30

New entries: Texas, Missouri.

Dropped out: Miami-FL, Penn State.

The top three teams were idle this week, but things will get interesting this Saturday as (1) Alabama hosts (2) LSU. Stanford won in dramatic fashion over USC this week, but dropped in overall expected win percentage thanks to that game being much closer than it should have been; that's also true for Oregon. In a great example of TFG's let's-not-be-hasty attitude, Wisconsin remains a spot above Ohio State, even though the Buckeyes defeated the Badgers 33-29; the game was at Ohio State, which gave the Buckeyes a slight advantage and therefore lessens the win in some respects.

Oklahoma State, Florida State, and Nebraska are all starting to get a little love from TFG, but behind that trio we're seeing the same pile-up we've seen all season. To give you some indication how dominant the Crimson Tide have been this year, the gap between Alabama and LSU is greater than the gap between (12) Nebraska and (20) Texas A&M. This doesn't mean that LSU has no shot this weekend, just that it's going to be an uphill battle.

Virginia Tech and Arkansas struggled in close wins, and Clemson finally dropped from the ranks of the unbeatens just in time to start yo-yo-ing in and out of the top 25, just like last year. It might be time to do a follow-up study, though. And speaking of dropping out of the top 25, there goes Penn State. In a true case of multiple personality disorder, the Nittany Lion have the 5th best defense in FBS, but the 79th best offense. Take Ohio State's defense and merge it with Rice's offense, and that's pretty much what Penn State looks like this year. This might be some record for the biggest difference between offensive and defensive quality. It may be time to start looking for trivia items for next year.

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Week 9: Saturday Recap

Week 9
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	39.1 -  13.9	73.8	41 -  12	77.4
RBA	38.9 -  14.1	73.5	39 -  14	73.6

Game of the Week

Nebraska Cornhuskers 24, Michigan State Spartans 3; 153 plays

Justin

(19) Nebraska 32, (10) Michigan St. 31 (53.4%); 163 plays

In yet another example of how college football isn't transitive, Michigan State beat Wisconsin, the Badgers hammered Nebraska, and therefore Michigan State will destroy Nebraska, right? Or not. So what happened? Well, you could point out that the home team always won. But then you'd have to acknowledge that it's possible that if team A beats team B, team A isn't necessarily better, especially if team A had home field advantage. But whatever. Back to the game at hand. The Nebraska defense was simply too much for the Spartans. Adjusting for home field advantage, the Husker defense was the second-best D the Spartans had seen all year behind only Ohio State; even then the Spartans had a few opportunities, including a pair of drives that started inside the Nebraska 40 yet yielded only three points. Other than that, the average starting position for the Spartans was their own 21. The Nebraska D did their part, and the Huskers walk away with the win.

Eddie

(14) Michigan St. 29, (24) Nebraska 28 (62.7%); 167 plays

This one didn't quite work out. It wasn't pretty -- the teams combined for fewer than 200 yards passing and only 487 total yards. The Cornhuskers pounded the Spartans with RB Rex Burkhead, who accounted for three touchdowns. Maybe it was a post-Wisconsin letdown or maybe it was the Blackshirt defense, but the Spartans never got anything going offensively. Not only was it a Nebraska victory, but it was a definitive Nebraska victory, 24-3.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Ohio State Buckeyes 33, Wisconsin Badgers 29; 159 plays

Eddie

(4) Wisconsin 31, (21) Ohio St. 20 (76.4%); 160 plays

It must suck to be a Wisconsin fan right now. The Badgers completed a furious comeback, scoring two touchdowns in the final 4:39. Just like last week. The Badgers left little time on the clock for a comeback. Just like last week. Then, the Badgers surrendered a bomb to let it all slip away. Just like last week. At 2-2 in conference, Wisconsin no longer controls its own destiny in their own division. With a 33-29 Ohio State victory, the Wisconsin season is on life support.

Justin

(9) Ohio St. 33, (7) Wisconsin 30 (52.9%); 158 plays

Off by one point and one play. I'm happy with this prediction. I said this was going to be a slow grind, and with six minutes to play the score was 20-14 in the favor of the Buckeyes. But over those last six minutes both teams decided to switch to "Madden" mode, and racked up a combined 28 points, including two sub-two-minute drives for Wisconsin that yielded touchdowns, and a 40 yard prayer by the Buckeyes to take the lead with 20 seconds left. It wasn't exactly an "immovable object", but the Ohio State defense did what they needed to do in order to give the offense a shot, and in the ends that's all that was needed.

Unstoppable Force 5, Immovable Object 3

Shootout of the Week

Oklahoma State Cowboys 59, Baylor Bears 24; 190 plays

Justin

(12) Oklahoma St. 45, (50) Baylor 33 (83.3%); 178 plays

This one was never going to be competitive, and in the end the teams combined for a weekend-high 83 points (we're ignored the OT game between USC and Stanford for obvious reasons). Unfortunately for Baylor it went pretty much as predicted, in that the Cowboys scored most of the points. Oklahoma State is still doing its best to prep for the Sooners, but did they do enough against Baylor to prove their point? Monday's rankings will give us the latest clue as to how the Cowboys and Sooners will stack up by the end of the year.

Eddie

(8) Oklahoma St. 45, (42) Baylor 27 (68.5%); 172 plays

I'm not going to go as far as Justin in suggesting that this game was never going to be competitive. 68.5% is slightly more competitive than RBA expects LSU-Alabama to be. However, this game was over early. Oklahoma State jumped out to a 35-0 halftime lead on back of Baylor's two turnovers on downs, two interceptions, and a missed field goal. Everyone loves a coach that goes for it, but this is what happens when it doesn't work out: 59-24 in favor of Oklahoma State.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 45, Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 20; 182 plays

Eddie

(90) LA-Lafayette 29, (96) Middle Tenn. 28 (67.5%); 167 plays

I'm not going to pretend to know anything about this game. This was nowhere near as close as the computers expected, but RBA wound up on the correct side of the random number generator that is low-quality football.

Justin

(94) Middle Tenn. 39, (95) LA-Lafayette 34 (62.9%); 173 plays

Dammit, I got this one wrong.
That's about all I have to say about it.

Coin Toss Record: TFG 4, RBA 3.

2011 - 2012 Season
System	Expected		Actual
	W - L	Win %	W - L	Win %
TFG	327.4 - 110.6	74.8	322 - 116	73.5
RBA	323.7 - 114.3	73.9	318 - 120	72.6

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Ask an Expert: Kenneth Massey of the BCS

This week in "Ask an Expert" we're pleased and honored to have Kenneth Massey as our expert. His computer ranking system has been part of the BCS for twelve years now, and currently accounts for one-sixth of the BCS computer rankings. He's been part of the BCS through several revisions and tweaks to the system, including several controversies. You'll have a week to think of anything you'd like to ask him, submit questions, and vote existing questions up or down. After a week he'll take the top 4-6 questions, spend a week mulling them over, and post his answers here.

Current expert: Kenneth Massey
Submit questions: Google Moderator site.

Deadline: Noon EDT, November 5th

Responses posted: November 12th

Bio: "Kenneth Massey is an American sports statistician known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since the 1999 season."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenneth_Massey
College Football Ranking Comparison

Week 9: Saturday Predictions

119 Akron 31 100 Central Michigan 36

119 Akron 28 108 Central Michigan 31

23 Arizona St. 39  91 Colorado 24

12 Arizona St. 42  79 Colorado 14

75 Arkansas St. 36 105 North Texas 27

83 Arkansas St. 34 105 North Texas 20

29 Auburn 40  74 Mississippi 29

31 Auburn 35  70 Mississippi 21

81 Duke 26  13 Virginia Tech 36

71 Duke 20  26 Virginia Tech 34

85 East Carolina 43 113 Tulane 31

89 East Carolina 38 117 Tulane 24

11 Florida 34  28 Georgia 31

19 Florida 28  18 Georgia 27

16 Florida St. 38  57 North Carolina St. 28

17 Florida St. 35  65 North Carolina St. 21

41 Georgia Tech 33  21 Clemson 35

44 Georgia Tech 24   9 Clemson 31

106 Idaho 34  73 Hawaii 37

106 Idaho 24  62 Hawaii 35

99 Indiana 33  71 Northwestern 35

102 Indiana 21  76 Northwestern 27

30 Kansas St. 33   6 Oklahoma 36

30 Kansas St. 21   6 Oklahoma 35

112 Kent St. 28  92 Bowling Green 29

113 Kent St. 21 103 Bowling Green 24

80 Kentucky 26  37 Mississippi St. 30

59 Kentucky 20  34 Mississippi St. 27

103 LA-Monroe 33  97 Western Kentucky 31

100 LA-Monroe 27  99 Western Kentucky 24

67 LA Tech 36 104 SJSU 25

77 LA Tech 34  97 SJSU 20

64 Louisville 31  65 Syracuse 28

64 Louisville 27  80 Syracuse 21

96 Marshall 34 109 UAB 27

98 Marshall 31 114 UAB 21

60 Maryland 32  87 Boston College 25

66 Maryland 28  91 Boston College 17

101 Miami-OH 32 114 Buffalo 26

101 Miami-OH 28 110 Buffalo 20

18 Michigan 38  69 Purdue 25

27 Michigan 38  74 Purdue 17

94 Middle Tenn. 39  95 LA-Lafayette 34

96 Middle Tenn. 28  90 LA-Lafayette 29

102 Minnesota 28  34 Iowa 37

112 Minnesota 21  23 Iowa 41

19 Nebraska 32  10 Michigan St. 31

24 Nebraska 28  14 Michigan St. 29

120 New Mexico 25  55 Air Force 41

116 New Mexico 17  58 Air Force 42

111 New Mexico St. 28  33 Nevada 41

107 New Mexico St. 17  52 Nevada 42

39 North Carolina 36  72 Wake Forest 28

45 North Carolina 31  82 Wake Forest 21

20 Notre Dame 39  56 Navy 30

22 Notre Dame 34  61 Navy 21

9 Ohio St. 33   7 Wisconsin 30

21 Ohio St. 20   4 Wisconsin 31

12 Oklahoma St. 45  50 Baylor 33

8 Oklahoma St. 45  42 Baylor 27

5 Oregon 46  89 Washington St. 23

5 Oregon 49  69 Washington St. 10

25 Penn State 30  43 Illinois 25

41 Penn State 24  38 Illinois 21

52 Rutgers 31  27 West Virginia 32

47 Rutgers 27  25 West Virginia 28

66 SDSU 38 108 Wyoming 25

56 SDSU 38 104 Wyoming 20

24 USC 31   4 Stanford 36

20 USC 27   2 Stanford 38

45 Tennessee 31  17 South Carolina 33

35 Tennessee 21  11 South Carolina 28

32 Texas 42  90 Kansas 27

32 Texas 48  93 Kansas 17

14 Texas A&M 34  26 Missouri 29

15 Texas A&M 35  28 Missouri 27

35 Texas Tech 40  86 Iowa St. 28

39 Texas Tech 41  85 Iowa St. 24

49 Tulsa 35  54 SMU 31

60 Tulsa 32  53 SMU 31

62 UCF 41 118 Memphis 22

57 UCF 45 115 Memphis 14

76 UCLA 29  53 California 31

75 UCLA 27  54 California 31

115 UNLV 35 110 Colorado St. 33

120 UNLV 24 109 Colorado St. 31

42 Utah 33  59 Oregon St. 28

36 Utah 35  67 Oregon St. 20

77 UTEP 33  51 Southern Miss. 35

88 UTEP 27  10 Southern Miss. 41

82 Vanderbilt 27  15 Arkansas 36

49 Vanderbilt 20  16 Arkansas 31

47 Washington 35  40 Arizona 32

33 Washington 38  50 Arizona 24

68 Western Michigan 38 107 Ball St. 27

73 Western Michigan 34  94 Ball St. 21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 9: Saturday Matchups

Game of the Week

Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers

GUGS Score: 71.1

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
19	Nebraska	0.757	0.541	49	24.4	23	15.5	22	166.2	61
10	Michigan St.	0.814	0.614	20	24.4	22	13.5	9	161.3	98

The Spartans are coming off a crazy last-second win against Wisconsin and have sole possession of first place in the Legends division of the Big 10. The Huskers are looking to get back on their feet after losing to the Badgers at the start of the month. This game is going to come down to defense. TFG has both teams with identical offensive efficiencies (24.4 PPH), but gives the slight defensive nod to Michigan State. This is before we factor in home field advantage, though; that bumps the coin toss in Nebraska's favor. This game won't be flashy, nor will it be pretty; both teams play slow and rely on their defense to keep them in it. TFG gives a slight nod to the Huskers, though. Nebraska 32, Michigan St. 31 (53.4%); 163 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
24	Nebraska	0.810	0.531	45	21.5	15	13.9	41	166.8	60
14	Michigan St.	0.911	0.543	25	20.8	21	10.2	9	167.3	49

(14) Michigan State beat (4) Wisconsin, and Wisconsin drilled (24) Nebraska. Therefore, Michigan State should obliterate Nebraska, right? It doesn't work that way. The Spartans played unusually well last week to beat the Badgers, and we care about statistical expectations. The Spartans have the better defense at 0.9 +/- 18.6 PPH versus the Cornhuskers' 5.1 +/- 17.5 PPH. However, the Cornhuskers have a better offense at 30.1 +/- 17.2 PPH versus 31.1 +/- 20.7. The difference works out in the Spartans' favor, even after taking home field advantage into account, but only slightly. RBA favors Michigan State, 29-28, with 62.7% confidence.

Unstoppable Force/Immovable Object Game

Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes

GUGS Score: 70.9

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
21	Ohio St.	0.860	0.530	46	18.4	43	9.8	8	159.3	117
4	Wisconsin	0.975	0.534	39	28.3	2	10.8	15	162.0	107

That (21) Ohio State? The Buckeyes haven't looked pretty this year, offensively, but they haven't really needed to with a stout 3.3 +/- 13.0 PPH defense. Hail Marys aside, (4) Wisconsin has looked great so far on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately, the Badgers' offensive efficiency is greater than a touchdown per hundred plays over the Buckeyes. They also boast a similar defense. In other words, the only thing keeping this game within two scores is home field advantage. RBA picks Wisconsin, 31-20, with 76.4% confidence.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
9	Ohio St.	0.834	0.547	46	22.5	36	11.8	5	158.8	110
7	Wisconsin	0.878	0.509	62	32.2	3	14.6	19	158.6	111

More Big 10 action in our UFIO game of the week. The Buckeyes have dropped off a cliff offensively, but their defense remains top-notch. If you need proof that the Buckeyes can win games with essentially no offense, see the Illinois game. Last week's game showed that the Badgers' offense was mortal, but is still the third-best in FBS behind Alabama and LSU. This game will be even slower and uglier than Michigan State/Nebraska, but one again home field advantage comes into play. Ohio State needs to get some offense going -- the Badger defense is vulnerable -- in order to make this a game, but TFG likes their odds. Ohio St. 33, Wisconsin 30 (52.9%); 158 plays.

Shootout of the Week

Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys

GUGS Score: 48.6

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
12	Oklahoma St.	0.800	0.559	38	26.9	9	15.4	20	181.5	3
50	Baylor	0.562	0.603	24	23.8	28	21.5	76	174.6	16

This is the second-easiest game the Cowboys have left this year, so expect them to try and make the most of it. Baylor's defense isn't even in the top half of FBS, which doesn't bode well. They're going to compound that by playing fast, which is exactly what Oklahoma State wants them to do. Unfortunately for the Cowboys and their TFG ranking -- which I'm sure they're losing sleep worrying about -- such a prolific offensive display won't exactly encourage them to play solid defense, slowing their rise in the rankings. In the end this one won't be close. Oklahoma St. 45, Baylor 33 (83.3%); 178 plays.

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
8	Oklahoma St.	0.941	0.551	12	26.2	5	14.0	42	172.7	9
42	Baylor	0.675	0.565	3	21.8	13	17.5	74	171.8	14

Brandon Weeden and Robert Griffin III should light up the scoreboard in this one. (8) Oklahoma State may have its ups and downs offensively, but they're one of the the most consistent defensive teams in college football (14.9 -/+ 1.6 PPH). Unfortunately, they're considently average. The good news is that Baylor is even worse at 5.1 +/- 24.8 PPH. Both offenses should rock against nationally average defenses, although the Bears (27.5 +/- 11.5 PPH) should be more consistent than the Cowboys (38.0 +/- 23.6 PPH). If Oklahoma State has an off day, Baylor is perfectly capable of beating them, but it's going to take a pretty big collapse to overcome the Cowboys. RBA predicts an Oklahoma State 45-27 victory with 68.5% probability.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

GUGS Score: 34.2

Eddie

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
96	Middle Tenn.	0.170	0.412	120	12.9	91	22.7	110	168.0	44
90	LA-Lafayette	0.246	0.427	119	15.9	64	21.0	103	167.1	55

They're not good, but the (90) Ragin' Cajuns are consistent offensively at 16.9 +/- 2.0 PPH. In contrast, (96) Middle Tennessee is closer to the national average for offensive variance at 20.5 +/- 15.0 PPH. Defensively, the Blue Raiders are marginally better, but more flaky (9.3 +/- 26.7 PPH versus 12.5 +/- 17.0 PPH). Bad teams are generally inconsistent, so this game really is a coin toss. If all goes according to plan, RBA expecteds LA-Lafayette to win a tight one, 29-28, with 67.5% probability.

Justin

Team		WinPct	SoS		Off.		Def.		Pace
94	Middle Tenn.	0.264	0.255	119	15.7	94	23.7	91	180.8	4
95	LA-Lafayette	0.254	0.311	114	18.1	74	27.8	111	166.8	55

I know. I know. "Who?" This one is the definition of "regional game." It does, however, happen to be the game on which Eddie and I disagree the most. Unfortunately for Louisiana-Lafayette, MTSU is the better team and they're playing at home. Middle Tenn. 39, LA-Lafayette 34 (62.9%); 173 plays.

System	Expected W - L	Expected % Correct
RBA	35.36 - 12.64	73.67%
TFG	35.09 - 12.91	73.11%

Week 9: Friday Predictions

61 BYU 25   8 TCU 37

55 BYU 21  13 TCU 31

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- RBA

Odds as of games through 2011-10-23

Week 9: Undefeated ... but for how long? -- TFG

Odds as of games through 2011-10-23

Week 9: Thursday Predictions

Houston plays tonight's game ahead of our weekly look at the remaining undefeated teams, so hopefully it won't be out-of-date by the time it's published tomorrow. And then one of those nasty, tricksy ACC games.

46 Houston 45  98 Rice 31

46 Houston 48  95 Rice 24

22 Miami-FL 37  79 Virginia 24

43 Miami-FL 28  84 Virginia 21

Key
Close game							Certain victory

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