Sunday, September 12, 2010

Week 3: Top 25 -- TFG

Another week in the books, some more churn in the top 25. Expect to see more of this up-and-down until the rankings really settle into place for this season.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Off Pts Def Pts Pace
001-- Alabama 0.9529 0.6167 28.5 7.8 79.1
002-- Florida 0.9212 0.5610 30.6 10.9 78.2
003-- Ohio St. 0.9105 0.5661 24.8 9.2 82.1
004-- TCU 0.9076 0.5255 24.8 9.5 83.0
005+1 Oregon 0.8962 0.5761 26.6 10.8 90.1
006-1 Texas 0.8867 0.4797 28.0 11.8 82.8
007-- Boise St. 0.8713 0.5073 27.3 12.2 83.7
008+2 Oklahoma 0.8676 0.6303 22.3 10.1 89.8
009-- Virginia Tech 0.8637 0.6456 26.8 12.3 79.5
010+1 Iowa 0.8499 0.5443 21.7 10.4 81.0
011+2 LSU 0.8362 0.5894 22.6 11.3 81.6
012-- Nebraska 0.8140 0.4252 20.6 11.0 80.9
013-5 Penn State 0.8125 0.6722 20.5 11.0 79.4
014NA Stanford 0.7925 0.5834 27.6 15.6 81.2
015-1 USC 0.7855 0.5661 21.1 12.2 85.1
016+1 Utah 0.7759 0.4664 21.8 13.0 84.2
017-2 Texas Tech 0.7632 0.4955 24.8 15.3 89.2
018+7 Arkansas 0.7607 0.5809 25.1 15.4 83.2
019+4 Arizona 0.7507 0.5525 21.3 13.5 82.5
020NA Air Force 0.7385 0.4764 19.9 12.9 83.3
021-2 Clemson 0.7352 0.5100 21.0 13.5 81.5
022NA Miami-FL 0.7283 0.6790 22.7 15.0 83.0
023+1 Oregon St. 0.7264 0.6759 24.0 15.9 84.4
024NA South Carolina 0.7185 0.6374 17.9 12.1 80.7
025-9 Georgia 0.7156 0.5978 24.2 16.4 78.6

New entries: Stanford, Air Force, Miami-FL, South Carolina.

Dropped out: BYU, Mississippi, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh.

Even in defeat, the Hurricanes managed to leap four spots into the top 25 by hanging 24 points on a tough Buckeye defense. Granted, 14 of those points came from special teams when OSU's defense was not on the field, per se, but TFG doesn't distinguish between offense, defense, and special teams.  The other three new entries all leap into our top 25 thanks to some solid wins, including South Carolina defeating Georgia in our inaugural GUGS Game of the Week.

At the top we see Alabama opening a decisive gap between themselves and second-place Florida. The Tide gets major points for holding the Nittany Lion offense to 3 points, making themselves not just the only team below the 9.0 PPH mark on defense, but below 8.0 PPH. So far this year, Alabama has stepped up their play on offense, breaking into the 28 PPH level, second only to Florida. Florida has seemed shaky at times this year, so SEC play will really shed some light on whether these unreal efficiencies are accurate, or an artifact of playing inferior competition (plus a bad day by Penn State).

Right now all the hype appears to be about Alabama and Ohio State, but the gap between (1) and (3) is larger than the gap between the third-ranked Buckeyes and the 7th-ranked Boise State Broncos. Even without taking Virginia Tech's loss into account, Boise State has yet to really differentiate themselves from the rest of the middle of the top 10.

Further down the rankings we see USC feeling the effects of their diminished payroll, currently ranked as the third-best team in the Pac 10, with Arizona closing fast. The Pac10 itself may be the sleeper story of the year so far, with half of their teams in the top 25. TFG has them listed as the second-best conference in college football, behind only the SEC. The Massey Ratings, a comparison of dozens of computerized college football rankings in which both TFG and RBA are listed, has the Pac10 as the third-best conference behind the SEC and the Big 12. We'll see how well that holds up as the year goes on, but so far this year the Pac10 has broken out of the traditional "USC and the 9 dwarves" storyline.