Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Week 2: Top 25 -- TFG

This past week saw very little action between top-ranked teams, except for the thriller between Boise State and Virginia Tech. When looking at these rankings, keep in mind that they are by and large still a reflection of last year's season. A mere 11.8% of the statistical weight that goes into these rankings is from the games you just saw, while a full 66.2% comes from the 2009-2010 season. The remainder comes from even older data.

Rank +/- Team WinPct SoS Off Pts Def Pts Pace
001+2 Alabama 0.9422 0.5830 27.4 8.7 79.2
002-1 Florida 0.9275 0.5797 30.7 10.9 77.0
003+1 Ohio St. 0.9272 0.5339 24.3 8.6 81.4
004-2 TCU 0.9102 0.5172 24.3 9.5 83.0
005-- Texas 0.8855 0.5142 27.8 12.2 83.8
006+7 Oregon 0.8847 0.5512 25.3 11.1 90.7
007+1 Boise St. 0.8795 0.4951 26.7 11.9 84.5
008+1 Penn State 0.8788 0.5778 22.7 10.1 80.7
009-2 Virginia Tech 0.8707 0.6519 26.4 12.1 80.3
010-4 Oklahoma 0.8497 0.6212 21.5 10.7 89.3
011+1 Iowa 0.8343 0.6018 21.2 11.0 80.4
012-1 Nebraska 0.8309 0.4498 21.2 11.1 80.4
013+2 LSU 0.8158 0.6409 22.1 12.0 82.3
014-4 USC 0.8118 0.5614 22.6 12.5 84.5
015-1 Texas Tech 0.7723 0.5349 24.6 15.1 88.9
016NA Georgia 0.7643 0.5835 26.2 16.3 79.7
017-1 Utah 0.7572 0.4982 21.4 13.6 84.9
018+2 Mississippi 0.7555 0.6323 21.5 13.6 81.6
019+2 Clemson 0.7448 0.5111 20.8 13.3 81.9
020+2 Georgia Tech 0.7412 0.6616 27.0 17.6 79.0
021-4 BYU 0.7382 0.4596 21.5 14.2 85.2
022-4 Pittsburgh 0.7337 0.5870 23.2 15.4 81.5
023NA Arizona 0.7332 0.5211 20.2 13.5 82.5
024NA Oregon St. 0.7298 0.6649 23.3 15.7 84.4
025NA Arkansas 0.7291 0.6629 25.3 16.8 83.4

New entries: Georgia, Arizona, Oregon State, Arkansas.

Dropped out: Miami-FL, Stanford, Cincinnati, Air Force.

Even after one week the computer polls begin to fall in line with people's expectations. Alabama and Ohio State rise to the top, USC and Texas Tech slip downwards. Georgia gets bonus points for manhandling LA-Lafayette, and Oregon is rewarded mightily for pounding New Mexico. After a few weeks, however, these lopsided wins will start fading into the statistical noise as TFG is reminded that neither LAL nor UNM is a powerhouse this year, and a big win counts for little. Ole Miss is saved by the fact that games against I-AA opponents aren't taken into account; we may have to fix that eventually.

The Pac10 makes a strong start out of the gate, placing 4 teams in the top 25, second only to the 6 teams from the SEC. This early on it's difficult for the computers to pick anything out of the noise, though.