Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Week 11: Predictions

Last week was a bad one for the system because it didn't break 70% after approaching 90% three weeks ago.  Hopefully the tweaks from this past week will help.  With that I bring you to

Games To Watch

(23) Miami-FL at (38) North Carolina. The numbers give an edge to "The U" but not by much: 57-43.  UNC is 2-1 in their recent games, including a narrow loss to (35) Florida State and a solid win on the road at (10) Virginia Tech.  Miami, on the other hand, is 2-1 with a home loss to (14) Clemson and a skin-of-their-teeth win to (60) Wake Forest.  Their 52-17 demolition of UVa on the road is a bit deceptive, as UVa has been in a tailspin since mid-October.  If North Carolina can keep Miami's offense in check they should be able to get their points.

(29) Auburn at (37) Georgia.  Auburn is 3-3 since the start of October, with wins over I-AA Furman, a squeaker over (22) Tennessee, and a good win over (25) Mississippi.  Georgia is 2-3 in that same stretch with wins over I-AA Tennessee Tech and (94) Vanderbilt.  Their losses, though, have been to (12) LSU, and on the road at (22) Tennessee and (1) Florida. The law of "common opponents" says Auburn wins this one in a walk, but my numbers say this is anyone's game.

(26) Arizona at (49) California. This is one that could have important implications for the Pac-10, an issue that I'll cover in a later post.  Arizona and Cal have similar defensive ratings (15.4 and 16.1) so it'll come down to offensive production.  Arizona's offense has been much more efficient, rating 22.1 to Cal's 18.2, good for about 6 points per game.  Both play at a similar pace, so this is going to come down to one of two things: can Cal dig up some extra defense or can their offense find an extra gear to outscore Arizona?

Coin Toss Game of the Week

(15) Texas Tech at (21) Oklahoma State. This one falls under the category of both "Games to Watch" and "Coin Toss Game of the Week".  This is another 50.2-49.8 game with Texas Tech taking the slight edge.  Oklahoma State hasn't fared well against high-powered offenses, with TTU tipping the scales at an efficiency of 28.0, good for third in the nation behind Texas (29.4) and Florida (30.7).  The TTU defense is another issue; think of TTU as the Texas offense combined with Vanderbilt's defense.  The OSU defense is good but not excellent, so much of their hope rides on being able to get a boost from their fans at home.  If they can slow down TTU's offense they'll have a shot.  Otherwise they risk getting completely blown out.  The CTGotW games have been anything but close, so we'll see if I junxed this one.

Full predictions after the jump.  The odds say I get 42 of these 57 right for a 73.4% accuracy rate.  I'm already 1-1 so far, as Ohio's FG with 1:25 left in the game ruined my perfect week.


Home
Visitors
Odds
(86) Buffalo
24
(79) Ohio
17
52.3
(58) Central Michigan
24
(104) Toledo
17
86.1
(111) Miami-OH
17
(75) Bowling Green
24
74.5
(52) Northern Ill.
31
(96) Ball St.
17
85.1
(42) Rutgers
24
(48) South Florida
17
64.9
(105) Akron
17
(78) Temple
24
64.6
(16) Cincinnati
24
(31) West Virginia
17
73.4
(36) Arkansas
24
(63) Troy
17
76.3
(74) Baylor
17
(2) Texas
31
96.0
(7) Boise St.
46
(90) Idaho
23
97.6
(49) California
17
(26) Arizona
24
55.9
(72) UCF
17
(44) Houston
24
60.8
(71) Duke
17
(27) Georgia Tech
31
70.9
(116) Eastern Michigan
17
(100) Western Michigan
24
69.9
(108) FL-Atlantic
24
(89) Arkansas St.
31
58.4
(106) FIU
31
(114) North Texas
24
72.4
(37) Georgia
31
(29) Auburn
24
55.3
(95) Hawaii
24
(119) New Mexico St.
17
92.6
(77) Illinois
24
(70) Northwestern
17
56.0
(81) Iowa St.
24
(76) Colorado
17
55.3
(54) Kansas St.
31
(43) Missouri
24
51.4
(46) Kansas
17
(13) Nebraska
24
70.6
(12) LSU
31
(68) LA Tech
17
91.8
(80) Louisville
24
(97) Syracuse
17
72.4
(82) Marshall
17
(61) Southern Miss.
24
56.0
(88) Maryland
17
(10) Virginia Tech
31
92.3
(102) Memphis
31
(92) UAB
24
54.6
(84) Middle Tenn.
31
(110) LA-Lafayette
17
81.8
(45) Mississippi St.
17
(5) Alabama
24
87.1
(25) Mississippi
24
(22) Tennessee
17
57.4
(38) North Carolina
17
(23) Miami-FL
24
51.5
(67) Nevada
24
(47) Fresno St.
31
55.2
(115) New Mexico
17
(18) BYU
31
95.5
(73) North Carolina St.
17
(14) Clemson
31
83.7
(91) LA-Monroe
31
(NA) WESTERN KY.
17
88.6
(4) Ohio St.
24
(17) Iowa
17
86.6
(21) Oklahoma St.
24
(15) Texas Tech
31
50.2
(6) Oklahoma
24
(51) Texas A&M
17
93.1
(24) Oregon St.
24
(69) Washington
17
85.4
(11) Oregon
31
(57) Arizona St.
17
89.8
(9) Penn State
24
(83) Indiana
17
96.3
(19) Pittsburgh
31
(39) Notre Dame
17
74.9
(56) Purdue
17
(40) Michigan St.
24
52.0
(113) Rice
24
(118) Tulane
17
77.5
(103) SDSU
24
(109) Wyoming
17
71.9
(55) South Carolina
14
(1) Florida
31
94.0
(8) USC
31
(32) Stanford
17
86.4
(85) SMU
31
(101) UTEP
24
69.2
(3) TCU
24
(20) Utah
17
90.5
(28) Air Force
31
(99) UNLV
17
92.5
(93) Utah St.
24
(107) SJSU
17
72.3
(94) Vanderbilt
17
(50) Kentucky
24
73.6
(53) Virginia
17
(34) Boston College
24
53.9
(60) Wake Forest
17
(35) Florida St.
24
56.8
(117) Washington St.
17
(64) UCLA
24
89.0
(30) Wisconsin
31
(65) Michigan
17
80.0
(59) Tulsa
24
(66) East Carolina
17
64.3