Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Week 10: Predictions

Last week saw several exciting games, and Week 10 is already off to an equally exciting start.  Last night Bowling Green beat Buffalo on an 18-yard TD with 0:39 remaining.  The numbers had Buffalo winning 31-24, but only with 50.2% odds.  Barring a touchdown from the 7 on 4th down as time expires, games generally don't come much closer than that.  With that, I bring you ...

Games To Watch

(25) Oregon State at (39) California.  This has the potential to be a fast game (around 174 plays) with OK but not excellent defenses.  Oregon State has a similar offensive efficiency as Iowa, they just need to step it up on the defensive side.  California will have the home-field advantage, pushing their defense into West Virginia territory and essentially equivalent to Oregon State.  They'll need to step it up on offense to keep up with Oregon State.  Vegas -- and my numbers -- say Cal is the favorite, but look for Oregon State to pull off the upset.

(33) Navy at (35) Notre Dame.  These are two teams headed in opposite directions in the rankings.  Two weeks ago Notre Dame was in the top 25 and Navy was struggling to stay in the top 40.  Now Notre Dame is only the favorite by virtue of being the home team, hanging their hats on their defensive rating of 15.6.  Navy has a solid offense, though, with an efficiency similar to that of Alabama (24.2).  Notre Dame are 11-point favorites, but I see this game being much closer, with the Fighting Irish having only a 60.2% chance of pulling off the victory.  I predict that Notre Dame will pull off the victory, but only at the end and only if they can keep Navy from getting some quick points.

(47) Houston at (56) Tulsa. Houston currently sits at #15 in the BCS polls, but I don't believe that and neither do the oddsmakers; they're currently split on this game, and for good reason.  Houston has all the defensive abilities of Michigan and the offensive firepower of Nevada.  If that doesn't sound like a top 15 BCS team then ... well, it shouldn't.  Houston has racked up some impressive wins against less-than-impressive opposition.  Tulsa has done more of the same, playing an even weaker slate than Houston.  They don't have the offensive weapons that Houston does, but has a reasonable defense.  The main question is whether or not Tulsa will be able to keep up with Houston's frantic pace, averaging an NCAA-high 185 plays per game.  The numbers give Tulsa a 51% nod in what will be a fast-and-furious high-scoring game.

Coin Toss Game of the Week

(90) Utah State at (101) Hawaii.  Not exactly Penn State/Ohio State, but this one should be much closer.  Hawaii is the 50.9-49.1 favorite in this one.  The numbers say Hawaii, but your guess is as good as mine.

The Bottom Line

The numbers say they should get 40 of the 52 games this week correct for a 76.9% accuracy rate.  They've started out 1-for-2, getting UCF over Marshall but missing Buffalo-Bowling Green.  Full predictions after the jump.


Home
Visitors
Odds
East Carolina
17
Virginia Tech
24
84.9
Northern Ill.
31
Eastern Michigan
24
94.6
Temple
24
Miami-OH
17
94.2
LA Tech
14
Boise St.
24
97.0
Akron
17
Kent St.
24
57.1
Alabama
17
LSU
7
81.7
UAB
31
FL-Atlantic
24
65.7
Arizona St.
17
USC
24
88.9
Arizona
31
Washington St.
17
98.2
Arkansas St.
24
LA-Lafayette
17
86.5
Arkansas
24
South Carolina
17
67.1
California
31
Oregon St.
24
52.2
UCLA
24
Washington
17
66.7
Cincinnati
24
Connecticut
17
87.5
Clemson
24
Florida St.
17
82.0
Colorado
24
Texas A&M
31
59.5
Florida
40
Vanderbilt
16
99.3
Georgia Tech
24
Wake Forest
17
86.1
Hawaii
31
Utah St.
24
50.9
Idaho
24
Fresno St.
31
79.4
Indiana
17
Wisconsin
24
82.5
Iowa St.
17
Oklahoma St.
24
77.3
Iowa
24
Northwestern
17
94.2
Kansas St.
24
Kansas
31
51.3
Miami-FL
17
Virginia
14
70.3
Michigan St.
24
Western Michigan
17
89.3
Michigan
31
Purdue
24
55.3
Middle Tenn.
24
FIU
17
72.4
Minnesota
24
Illinois
17
74.9
Missouri
24
Baylor
17
87.8
North Carolina
17
Duke
7
73.6
Nebraska
17
Oklahoma
24
62.8
UNLV
24
Colorado St.
31
57.9
North Carolina St.
24
Maryland
17
72.4
North Texas
24
LA-Monroe
31
57.5
Notre Dame
31
Navy
24
60.2
Penn State
24
Ohio St.
17
58.8
Pittsburgh
24
Syracuse
17
95.1
SDSU
14
TCU
24
99.0
SMU
31
Rice
24
88.0
Stanford
17
Oregon
24
80.0
Tennessee
24
Memphis
17
96.7
Texas
31
UCF
14
98.0
Tulane
17
UTEP
24
90.1
Tulsa
31
Houston
24
51.0
Air Force
24
Army
14
96.6
Utah
31
New Mexico
14
98.6
West Virginia
24
Louisville
17
89.1
WESTERN KY.
24
Troy
38
93.1
Wyoming
17
BYU
24
86.9
SJSU
24
Nevada
31
73.1